Trading - Some Euro concern rising?We got a nasty European Commission downgrade of growth per key news above; plus this morning from Wolfgang Münchau, writing in the Financial Times:
"Governments are not coming clean on the scale of the crisis. Süddeutsche Zeitung, the German newspaper, recently revealed an internal memo from Bafin, the country's banking regulator, showing the estimated scale of write-offs would be more than €800bn ($1,061bn, £712bn), about a third of Germany's annual gross domestic product. By comparison, the entire capital and reserves of its monetary and financial institutions were only €441.5bn in February. If the leaked number is true, it would mean the German financial system is broke.[9:09:15 AM] Andy_eaFXTrader says: watch for dollar strength
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
THOUGHTS FROM JOHN ON THE EA
Fundamentals: There is a lot of news coming out for the rest of the week including GBP Official Bank Rate, Euro Minimum Bid Rate, and comments following, unemployment and employment for many countries, and housing starts, so be aware that the market may be very choppy. So keep your eye on the news closely before just letting the ea go for a run. (Open Forex Factory and scan through all the news items.)
AUD/USD: This pair seems to have finally rested at after aggressively running to the 38.2 fib line on the larger time frames. Unless major news pushes this pair further, I would look for the aud/usd to continue to consolidate between .7250 and .7475 (38.2 fib).
Euro/AUD The price has been trending as the Aussie has been taking back some of it losses. The price is headed towards the 61.8 Fib line on the larger time frame charts, but has been consolidating for the past day and a half. As major news is coming out, I would be very cautious on this one. The recent news on the Euro has been more negative than positive, and for the Aussie, more paotivie than negative. If this trend continues, then we would see the price moving to 1.7650 area of the 61.8 fib.
Euro/CHF Price is holding on the 38.2% fib line. Price has oscillating along this line for 2 weeks now. This pair has a tendency to run in a consolidated mode for a while and then go into a 400+ pip tend to correct itself. The 13, 50, and 89 ma’s are consolidating very tightly on the 4 hr chart which may mean a move is afoot soon… the ma’s don’t like to be squeezed together. I think this pair will require some strong news for or against one of the currencies to make it move.
EUR/USD Price seems to have held at the 23.6% fib on the larger time frame charts. The pair seems oversold on the 4 hr and the recent 4hr price has been using the 23.6 fib as support. Look for news to push this below the 1.3200 price point.
GBP/CHF The pair has been slowing creeping back to the 23.6 fib line on the larger time frame. And in doing so has been a steady oscillating pair, with minor corrections every every 2 to 3 days. I would look to see the price consolidate on the current move of today before trading.
GBP/USD The price currently consolidates on the 1.500 price point, which it has tried to break through 6 times before since last November. Watch the news reports this week and there will probably be a lot of volatility. This you may want to not trade until all the relevant news is out.
USD/CAD Price is still in a downward channel after 9 weeks. The past 2 days has seen the price hold at or near the 200 ma on the day chart. Upcoming news will be important to see if the 200 ma holds. Tread carefully.
USD/CHF Price is holding above the 38.2% on the fib lines, which is at 1.1300 on the larger time frame charts. Wait and see what the news brings on this pair as it likes to move quickly on short term trends, which is not good for our trading.
Today’s Q & A:
Q. What money management is built into the system?
A. Proper Money Management is a human decision, a decision make by the individual trader. It is not determined by an EA.
One of the most important aspects of Money Management is Lot size. You, the individual trader, determine this. Realize that due to the very high number of trades the eaFXTrader places, the Lot size per Entry is of critical importance.
Some users of the eaFXTrader use 0.1 Lot (this = 1 mini-Lot) per $20,000 in account size. Please do not read this as professional financial advice, but rather a rough estimate of Lot size per account size that some folks consider to be a smart way to trade.
John_eafxtrader
AUD/USD: This pair seems to have finally rested at after aggressively running to the 38.2 fib line on the larger time frames. Unless major news pushes this pair further, I would look for the aud/usd to continue to consolidate between .7250 and .7475 (38.2 fib).
Euro/AUD The price has been trending as the Aussie has been taking back some of it losses. The price is headed towards the 61.8 Fib line on the larger time frame charts, but has been consolidating for the past day and a half. As major news is coming out, I would be very cautious on this one. The recent news on the Euro has been more negative than positive, and for the Aussie, more paotivie than negative. If this trend continues, then we would see the price moving to 1.7650 area of the 61.8 fib.
Euro/CHF Price is holding on the 38.2% fib line. Price has oscillating along this line for 2 weeks now. This pair has a tendency to run in a consolidated mode for a while and then go into a 400+ pip tend to correct itself. The 13, 50, and 89 ma’s are consolidating very tightly on the 4 hr chart which may mean a move is afoot soon… the ma’s don’t like to be squeezed together. I think this pair will require some strong news for or against one of the currencies to make it move.
EUR/USD Price seems to have held at the 23.6% fib on the larger time frame charts. The pair seems oversold on the 4 hr and the recent 4hr price has been using the 23.6 fib as support. Look for news to push this below the 1.3200 price point.
GBP/CHF The pair has been slowing creeping back to the 23.6 fib line on the larger time frame. And in doing so has been a steady oscillating pair, with minor corrections every every 2 to 3 days. I would look to see the price consolidate on the current move of today before trading.
GBP/USD The price currently consolidates on the 1.500 price point, which it has tried to break through 6 times before since last November. Watch the news reports this week and there will probably be a lot of volatility. This you may want to not trade until all the relevant news is out.
USD/CAD Price is still in a downward channel after 9 weeks. The past 2 days has seen the price hold at or near the 200 ma on the day chart. Upcoming news will be important to see if the 200 ma holds. Tread carefully.
USD/CHF Price is holding above the 38.2% on the fib lines, which is at 1.1300 on the larger time frame charts. Wait and see what the news brings on this pair as it likes to move quickly on short term trends, which is not good for our trading.
Today’s Q & A:
Q. What money management is built into the system?
A. Proper Money Management is a human decision, a decision make by the individual trader. It is not determined by an EA.
One of the most important aspects of Money Management is Lot size. You, the individual trader, determine this. Realize that due to the very high number of trades the eaFXTrader places, the Lot size per Entry is of critical importance.
Some users of the eaFXTrader use 0.1 Lot (this = 1 mini-Lot) per $20,000 in account size. Please do not read this as professional financial advice, but rather a rough estimate of Lot size per account size that some folks consider to be a smart way to trade.
John_eafxtrader
Tuesday,May 05,2009 Charts and FAQ of the day
Tuesday, May 05, 2009 Charts and FAQ of the Day:
Good day... Hola! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, today is Cinco De Mayo... It's a fun day so go have some fun!
euro, traded all the way to 1.34 and change, saw profit taking, which caused it to drop back down, only to end the day moving past 1.34 again... Overnight, the euro hit 1.3438, but once again, profits and the fact that stock futures are showing weakness have brought the Big Dog back under 1.34...
The Aussie dollar (A$) also saw a nice bid all day long yesterday, and moved past 74-cents, and remained there overnight! The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged last night, and delivered a fairly balanced statement afterward...
The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet this week, and some of thoughts in the markets here, is that the ECB will move rates lower. Those thoughts are also responsible for the drag on the euro to bring it below 1.34 this morning...
The data cupboard is pretty empty today, after yesterday's second tier reports of Pending Home Sales, and Construction Spending printed, and left us guessing what really is happening in the economy... Today, though, we'll get a clear, concise, view of the economy from our Fed Chairman, Big Ben Bernanke! OK... We can wish can't we?
AUD/CAD – A month of consolidation on the Day chart, along with a 4-hr Pendant formation. Looks like it is fixing to breakout, watch for a move in the next couple of days.
Aud/USD - Breakout on the Day and 4-hr charts. No sign of consolidation yet.
EUR/CAD – (ditto from yesterday)
was out of range last few days, with a 4hr trend occurring. I expect some oscillation, larger ones so I am still watching it vs trading it. Best case in my book is a Conservative set, Only trading 1 set of trades on it for the time being.
EUR/USD -- The 200 on the 4hr has been broken thru to the up side. Watch for news items as that can change the pattern of Upward movement. With the European meetings to discuss Rate changes coming later this week, look for decent for consolidation over next couple of days..
GBP/USD – Strong upward moves on the 4hr And Day charts. The 4hr chart has price stretching away from the 200 MA. Out of Range for now, so look for a possible pullback.
USD/CAD -- after an extended move over last few days, I look for it to remain Out of Range generally, or to consolidate briefly before resuming a run down.
USD/CHF The 200 on the 4hr has been broken thru to the down side. Large Oscillations taking place on the 4-hr, but Day has general consolidations.
GBP/CHF -- currently crossing in and out of range, but looking to consolidate. I am looking to put this on today, will review again at noon for any changes and decide then.
EUR/JPY – 1 hr and 4 hr Oscillations with sharp moves in and out of Range. Looking to consolidate.
FAQ of the Day:
Tip 7.
A gentleman had recently lost his job and asked me if he should open a Forex account using money from his credit card. My very short answer to him was “hell no”.
Here’s the longer version of that answer:
Trading in the ForEx Market is Speculative and involves a substantial Risk of Loss. This type of trading should be undertaken with funds that are allocated to a High Risk/High Return investment vehicle, and should not be considered as part of a traditional investment portfolio allocation.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
If you are considering using funds that you cannot afford to loose, we strongly recommend a savings account that is FDIC insured or U.S government backed securities.
Good day... Hola! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, today is Cinco De Mayo... It's a fun day so go have some fun!
euro, traded all the way to 1.34 and change, saw profit taking, which caused it to drop back down, only to end the day moving past 1.34 again... Overnight, the euro hit 1.3438, but once again, profits and the fact that stock futures are showing weakness have brought the Big Dog back under 1.34...
The Aussie dollar (A$) also saw a nice bid all day long yesterday, and moved past 74-cents, and remained there overnight! The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged last night, and delivered a fairly balanced statement afterward...
The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet this week, and some of thoughts in the markets here, is that the ECB will move rates lower. Those thoughts are also responsible for the drag on the euro to bring it below 1.34 this morning...
The data cupboard is pretty empty today, after yesterday's second tier reports of Pending Home Sales, and Construction Spending printed, and left us guessing what really is happening in the economy... Today, though, we'll get a clear, concise, view of the economy from our Fed Chairman, Big Ben Bernanke! OK... We can wish can't we?
AUD/CAD – A month of consolidation on the Day chart, along with a 4-hr Pendant formation. Looks like it is fixing to breakout, watch for a move in the next couple of days.
Aud/USD - Breakout on the Day and 4-hr charts. No sign of consolidation yet.
EUR/CAD – (ditto from yesterday)
was out of range last few days, with a 4hr trend occurring. I expect some oscillation, larger ones so I am still watching it vs trading it. Best case in my book is a Conservative set, Only trading 1 set of trades on it for the time being.
EUR/USD -- The 200 on the 4hr has been broken thru to the up side. Watch for news items as that can change the pattern of Upward movement. With the European meetings to discuss Rate changes coming later this week, look for decent for consolidation over next couple of days..
GBP/USD – Strong upward moves on the 4hr And Day charts. The 4hr chart has price stretching away from the 200 MA. Out of Range for now, so look for a possible pullback.
USD/CAD -- after an extended move over last few days, I look for it to remain Out of Range generally, or to consolidate briefly before resuming a run down.
USD/CHF The 200 on the 4hr has been broken thru to the down side. Large Oscillations taking place on the 4-hr, but Day has general consolidations.
GBP/CHF -- currently crossing in and out of range, but looking to consolidate. I am looking to put this on today, will review again at noon for any changes and decide then.
EUR/JPY – 1 hr and 4 hr Oscillations with sharp moves in and out of Range. Looking to consolidate.
FAQ of the Day:
Tip 7.
A gentleman had recently lost his job and asked me if he should open a Forex account using money from his credit card. My very short answer to him was “hell no”.
Here’s the longer version of that answer:
Trading in the ForEx Market is Speculative and involves a substantial Risk of Loss. This type of trading should be undertaken with funds that are allocated to a High Risk/High Return investment vehicle, and should not be considered as part of a traditional investment portfolio allocation.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
If you are considering using funds that you cannot afford to loose, we strongly recommend a savings account that is FDIC insured or U.S government backed securities.
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