Market Thoughts‏

Well a bit of a rough week for me, fussin that I have had a losing weekhere.....

But, I look at it, $788.43 gained on a 5k account in 1 month, Live with MBT.(sometimes despite myself)...

That is a 15.8% Increase in the account if I stop now...

So to put in into perspective....

15% increase, and we are at the end of the quarter,FOMC out, Market don'thave a clue, Stocks has been down and up in a 500 point oscillation. Punditsare about to commit suicide since no one has any bearing...

I think I will celebrate instead of feeling aggravated.......

Next week is 4th July, make sure your NOT trading day before holiday breakand until after holiday break.

Sunday, I am going to look over fundementals of the market, and giveeveryone my thoughts, also tell you what I am looking for. Basically the EAtakes care of most everything, EXCEPT fundementals, that is the clues weneed to look for and study a bit. Not hard, and not a lot, just enough tosay, "market is not where I want it to be"....

We will also send out the 5k account and my live account with MBT out forstats to look at... Have a GREAT Weekend.

Andy <> Stapleton

Friday thoughts‏ from Andy

Wild week this week.... Definitly wild, the 1200 or so pip moves on Wedcertainly helped trading and the loss's that occurred on the EUR/CAD daybefore..

I am pleased to hear that quite a few are 20%- 40% up on the accounts sincethey started as well as this month alone.... This tells me we are on theright track...

We are still working on a more streamlined website, trying to simplify it asmuch as possible. For this weekend my suggestion is to review your tradestyle, make sure it is what you want..

G20 meeting thru Sunday, so I will shut down for the weekend and restartMonday...This is also the last 2 weeks of the quarter, expect some repositioning andsetup for some retracements/consolidations that will startup the july - septarea as most of EU will be vacationing.

I have been noticing quite a few are reapplying templates constantly....

Here is my suggestion,


IF your using your personal computer for demo, do as you wish... But themore things that you run, the internet may get slower , and that can affectyour trading.

If it is a LIVE account, spend the 400-500 bucks and BUY a dedicatedmachine, or click on the ForexVPS link on the website and setup the VPS. ITIS WORTH YOUR MONEY. We have 3 VPS accounts, and I also run 2 dedicatedtrading computers at my house, so don't skimp on it..

You should Not have to reapply each day, I don't, I reset each machine onSunday, basically turning them off on Friday and restarting Sundayafternoon. IF your switching timeframes a lot, let me know, it could bepartly the issue, I will attempt to get around it.


On another note, TEXT, since we have quite a few newbies in the group, Iwill reiterate the TEXT, a TICK or 2 may enter you into a trade when theTEXT never changes, ALSO demo vs live can be different in pips andcalcuations of the internal algorithms... Even between people.


1st is the calcuations, If the market is moving, then you may not see thetext change , as that DOES cause flickering which I consider annoying.. Soit is last on the list to be done. And if another tick does come in , thenit is skipped.


So if the text doesn't change , and you think it should, then reapplying thetemplates will not help as since it RESETS everything, you may not get intoa trade you need to get into. Or get into a bunch you don't want to...Again. The calc's are first , and the program will do it's job whether ittells you everything or not....unfortunately the MT4 platform causesthese issues, and my job is to basically make sure the TRADING is accurate,more than display....


Build 1032 will be out soon, this will automatically refresh the screen once, each time of your time settings so if your 1pm to 5pm, it will make surethat text is refreshed at 1pm and 5pm...

Also it should smooth out some calls to the internet as well.


Thanks for everything, we are definilly doing well..

Andy <> Stapleton

Andy's trading thoughts -- brokers and accounts‏

In a discussion this morning, we talked about how to treat an account andmake it work. FAR to often this gets to be a game, highest score wins, wellthat really is not the goal.

What is the goal? GET MONEY BACK... Far to often we build an account, andsee profits thrown away and cannot restart...

After losing 400k from a broker that NEVER had a issue with the NFA, thenBLAM, shut down with 800k of funds in it, losing about 1/2, my philosophychanged.


The starting amount of your account should be what you can afford to lose,give to your children (expecting not to get back, or family). MIN Baseamount is what it would take to run 1 mini lot with suffient reserve (10kfor the EA).


So lets say that is 5k. (current amount I am starting with MBT).


Step 1: EACH month it grows, even if it is 50 bucks, I am pulling the fundsback down to my base till I get back ALL of the 5-10k first.

So now, if we are talking 5-10% gains, then we are looking at several monthsof patience as this money is returned and collected.

Step 2: once this has been ALL returned, then I would be pulling 1/2 thegains each month allowing the funds to grow till I have a BASE amount thatallows me to pull my expectation of gains back. At the moment with current %gain proven on the EA, that is around 50k.

Step 3: EACH month after that, I will Pull ALL funds back to the baseamount. Leaving NONE in there except the base...


This is no different than say a dividend paying stock or company, thedividends you would then fund other investments that are less risky and payas well.

That is my goal. And what you will see as I move forward with the MBTaccount.


Comments by Andy Stapleton

This week - and thoughts‏

Well we seem to be doing much better with the 1031 build, attached is one of our newest members Jane, from a group in FL, this is her results for 1 week on a demo account.

I started a Live 5k account last week, also and using 1/2 mini as we recommend, it has gained 10% already, little over 530.00 for the 8 days. I will be publishing this on the web next week each day.

NFP today is out, so I am off,

Also we are going to be rebuilding the website to streamline some issues, and make it easier to change or use. so that will be a couple of weeks out but don't be surprised when it shows up..... With this new website, we will have the ability for the accounts to show you your STATS like we have, couple of info's on your part and blam, your own stats on the screen, giving you the ability to view them or publish them to your friends....

Membership, we are little over 1/2 way there on memberships to our limit, I am going thru demo's accounts and those that have been playing for a long time, either need to get motivated, or I will open the slot to someone else..... no offense, but as the live accounts grow, paying attention to those that have risk will take precidence... since we had been changing and modifying the EA for awhile, the extra month was "the right thing to do"....

I will say this; the last few years development has been a Love/chore/hateful/nasty/wonderful/never do it again/won't stop now, experience I have had in my life, and frankly I am proud of not only where we are , but that y'all are here and reaping the benefits also....

MBT----- yes, talking with them to get us in as early as possible, I expect that late this month ,early next they should be ready, this is a wonderful opportunity for MT4 traders for sure... once they are ready you will get a email from me with a link to get started.

IF you are new and want to learn a bit of the basics, as well as get a good JW can help you over at www.forexmgr.com he has intimate knowledge of the trading styles I use.

If your wondering where to open an account, click on the FXRebates image on the website, they have several that use MT4 and give you back money for your trading....also, if your waiting for MBT, email me, I will put together a list for them ...

Some thoughts on the market‏

Last week we saw some pretty strong movements out of the pairs against thedollar, does that mean you need to suspend it? No, actually as we have always learned, after each move there is a restperiod, that is what we are looking for.. EUR -- resistance on the daily and weekly are coming up, should start toslow trading a bit this month thru the EU vacation time in July aug. GBP -- been running a week or 2 but it is still a retracement on the weekly,so expect some resistance to start showing up soon... With choppiness.. AUD -- same story different pairs, as the US economy shows signs or isproported to be hitting bottom a lot of funds sitting on the sidelines arestarting to trickle into the market, commodities and oil, driving the dollardown... Now, here is my thoughts......... We have had for a couple of quarters some "flight to safety" as the punditsand others have said we are in the next big depression, the acts of bernakeand G-man have thrown a bit of brakes on it, but certainly the "raining" ofdollars onto the market may come back to bite them in the buttocks. There CERTAINLY have been mistakes in this debacle that will start todisplay their ugliness soon, depending on how severe that is , will dependon market. Here is what I am watching...... GM - if the do file bankrupcty, that will reverberate through the market,and cause some dollar moves, as some scaring will happen, so watch forabrupt strong moves the other direction this week. As the President presents the next big spending plan, expect some fights andarguing there, G-man is flying to china to assure china we are not completeidiots and "kiss backsides" so they don't pull the plug on is.... We live in interesting times, this month is the end of the 2cnd quarter, andshould be quite interesting to see how they market sets up for summerquarter. Andy <> Stapletonwww.eaFXTrader.com your Final Solution for MT4 automated Trading

Analyzing the flow of the charts

Flow of the chart means to use the natural progression of the technical chart to anticipate the eventual out come of the trade.How can you tell the direction is going short or long?The first thing that you must understand is that all charts no matter what time frame you are viewing are building in the same manner with no exceptions from the 1 minute to the 1 month.By paying attention to the indicators you are able, for a short time, relative to the chart you are analyzing, you may be able to anticipate the short term out come, this work very well when anticipate the one hour trade plan , what I mean by “short time” and “short term” is the candle that is building on the higher chart possibly the following candle.Never any further then that.You must have in your indicators a way to tell over all direction I use 10, 20, 50, and the 89 EMA’s, you may use the EMA’s that works best for you. You have to understand what the EMA’s are telling you .When looking for and entry the EMA’S can help, if you are going long and you are close to a 10 EMA on the day chart you may want to wait until the price has broken the day chart 10 EMA point.Most of the time when the price hits an EMA on a higher chart the price will take a draw back, this draw back can cause you to get stopped out, depending on your stop loss setting, to prevent this from happening to you, first don’t trade if you are close to a day 10 EMA until after you have passed it. Same with the 4 hour chart 10 EMA and the price trend line.Let’s take the same situation and find out how we can tell if it will break on through or if the 10 EMA of the day is the turn around point.You must remember that the higher the chart the more solid the resistance or the support is.Note:(For instance the 15 minute 10 EMA or trend line is much easier to break, then the 30 minute the same applies as you go up in time frames.30 easier then the 1hr. 1 hr easier then the 4 hr, 4 hr easier then the day, day easier then the week ,week easier then the month this is particularly true when you are in a one our trade plan trade)You will be looking at the 4 hour chart first (remember that the day is close to the 10 EMA and we are looking to go long.Note:If the EMA’s on the 4 hour are consolidated it makes it a little hard to find direction,With that being said, if your EMA’s are starting to spread to the long side on the 4 hour chart, then the evidence is there for your day to continue long.(BUT it is not guaranteed)Now we need to validate the trade, when using any trade plan you must have a way to validate the trade the way to do this is look back at the 1 hour chart you are looking for two main indications on the 1 hour chart. The EMA’s need to be spreading apart to the long direction, the wider the better, this will give you an indication that the 4 hour and day may continue long. The other indicator you are looking for is the CCI to be at the bottom (over sold) of the scale.Why are we looking at the CCI?If the CCI is at the bottom of the scale then there is more of a chance for the price to go up rather then down. We are going to want to have this to be true also on the 30 minute chart.Now that we have all that checked out and all of our charts are showing that we have more of a chance to go long then short, then we can be more comfortable about staying in a trade that is going to hit the 10 EMA of the day chart.Note:If the 15 minute has the EMA’s spread wide and the CCI over sold heading long this will help to confirm this move going long.Now let’s look at how to tell that the price is going to possibly turn or draw back to the short, at the 10 EMA of the day chart,Again you start with the 4 hour chart and find out the attitude of the EMA’s. Just for example sake lets say that we are using the one hour trade plan and the EMA’s are just starting to brake to the north and the day is right up against it’s 10 EMA. So far the 4 hr and the day are telling you that it MAY continue long.Let’s validate the trade.We go to the 1 hour and see that the 10 EMA is now starting to curve down and the price is candle is below the 10 EMA on the 1 hour chart this is an indication that the move to the long is possibly slowing or is drawing backThis would NOT be the time to enter a trade going long.If you go on back to the 30 minute and see that the EMA’s are crossing over and heading short and spreading apart, Which is going the opposite direction of the 4 hr and day there is more of a chance that the 10 EMA of the day is the turn around point, and it is going to at the very least draw back the current day candle, back to a previous price. You would want to wait until it finishes that draw back before you try to go long again.Note:You may want to at this time start to evaluate the possibility of going the other direction (short) and start looking for an entry using the validation process making sure that it is not just a pull back to the 4 hour 10 EMA.The 15 minute and the CCI of all the charts can help to identify the pull back on a higher chart or the return to the trend.The CCI is important to the evaluation and you have to evaluate it on each time frame individually.You can get an idea of the more likely direction if you are looking to go long and all the CCI’s on all lower charts are at the bottom (over sold) of the scale then you have more of a chance to go long. If the CCI’s are at the top (over bought) on all charts except the 4 hour or day then there is a real chance that the 4 hour and eventually the day will retrace or pull back.Note:(You can not anticipate direction by looking at the CCI only it lags too much).Note:This is important when you combine the EMA direction with the CCI direction when they are agreeing with each other then the stronger the move to that direction.If the CCI is going down and the EMA’s are going up depending on the spread of the EMA’s then you may only be doing a pull back on that particular chart and not a change in direction over all.Recap:The technique is based upon the fact that the charts are all built in the same manner and they are all built from one formula base on tick data. To explain a little more this is how the charts are built.Tick data is compiled to build the1 minute candle. It takes five 1 minute candles build the 5 minute candle. Three 5 minute candles build the 15 minute candle. It takes two 15’s build the 30 minute candle. Two 30’s builds the 1 hour candle. Four 1hour candles build the 4 hour candle. Six 4hour candles to build the day candle. Five 5 day candles build the week candle, 4 week candles to build the 1 mouth candle.You may ask why did you go through all that ?The reason is once you understand the way candles are built then it is easy to see how you can look at the lower charts and see what the upper charts may do. Also be able to see the one hour trade plan develop.I hope that this is going to help you when you analyze the charts.Thank youJ. W. Stapleton

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Here are what some of our current members have to say

I had spent thousands of dollars to learn Forex trading through another company, including investments in their software and training programs. I was sadly disappointed in their non-comprehensive and non-personalized approach which did not take into consideration my long-term goals nor my initial inexperience in this market. I’ve been a painting contractor for most of my adult life, so even spending a steady amount of time at my computer was, by itself, a lifestyle change. Two years later, with too much money wasted and no significant improvement in my knowledge base, I become acquainted with Forex Managers, and since have become an eager student of JW and Andy Stapleton. Their desire that I be taught in a way that would be efficient for me was inspiring—not only is their proprietary software effective, rational and easy to use, the combination of their confidence in my ability to learn and their willingness to work with me at a level I can comprehend have made all the difference. The level of integrity they express in how they treat their students, and their encouragement along the way, have made very real to me a future in which I will be able to provide for my family and actually enjoy what I do day to day. I’m a terrific example that, whether a beginner or expert, Forex Managers will contribute to your ultimate success as well.
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To: JW Stapleton of Forexmgr, Anyone that is looking for a method/information source that works within the Forex market.

The program seems to work very well in “all market conditions” (choppy to long term trends). The methods that forexmgr uses is very flexible.

I have been in the markets (Commodities, Options and Forex) for about 6 years and I can honestly say that until I found Forexmgr I was just floundering and not very consistence in my successful trades. I used plans/systems and some of them cost a lot of money and after some time I became very discouraged and lost a lot more of my money. Each time I used a new system the results were always the same, however, in the long term only picking up a few new good points (so not all was a total loss). Lighter pockets and systems that in effect did not adapt to all markets conditions that seem to change with the weather.

With the method that “JW” teaches, I and many others in the group, will attest to the fact that you have the tools to deal with all types of market conditions. He speaks in a way that all can relate to and learn how to deal with the changing markets. JW is very friendly and has the patience of jobe and loves helping people any time of the day and night. I would recommend watching and listening to his classes. If you are new and unsure of the forex market or making bad trades with big pullbacks or losses and you want to learn how to possibly prevent this from happening, then this is the place for you.

The other thing about this group is that everyone helps everyone.

Hope to see you at Forexmgr.com

Happy successful trades to you.

Ken Calkins

I'm not new to trading, I traded the commodities market during the late 70's and early 80's. I was one of the unlucky one's to be on the opposite side of the Hunt brothers when they were trying to corner the silver market. I lost over five thousand. Made it back in wheat. A couple of years ago I got back into trading in the S&P500. I used a 5min chart for entering and exiting trades, very fast pace to say the least. Terrible system in choppy markets.
The reason for this bit of history is that I have some experience trading and know just about every mistake you can make because I made most of them. Over trading, moving stops, going on vacation with open trades, just to name a few. Most of my trading mistakes were do to emotion. The psychological factor that's involved in trading these markets is enormous. If you don't have a good system, if you have trouble controlling your emotions, and you don't have excellent ongoing support, don't trade. Eventually you will lose.
A company called FOREXMGR founded by Andy and JW Stapleton have put it all together. Their Desktop system works. It monitors my trades and gets me in and out of the trade based on parameters I give it, keeping a lot of the emotion out of trading. Training and support are excellent. Chat room training 3 mornings a week and chat room market reviews with training 4 nights a week.
They also provide seminar training. I attended a seminar in Las Vegas and was more than satisfied with what was provided. Live trading, different levels of training, and plenty of one on one This isn't a get rich quick scheme. It takes work to make money in any market. If you take part in the chat room support, learn how to use your charts to anticipate direction, understand support and resistance etc., and put in the time and effort that you need, then you will be on the right track with FOREXMGR.
Best Regards,
Bill Dick

Morning JW
I just wanted to drop you a note and say thanks for all the help from forexmgr.com. I’ve been with you now for about 2 years and I have learned a lot. I am getting much better at reading the charts and setting up to monitor trades and make pips. I have made far more pips since working with you folks than I ever did with the “easy” group. When I have a question I know that I can give a call and get the question answered.
Again, thanks for all your efforts and keep up the good work, the on going education is important, and even though we may not say so very often, it is much appreciated.
Still learning
Bob Lannon

My decision to subscribe to FOREXMGR has been one of the best business decisions I have made. Their constant training and repetition have been a valuable source of learning. FOREXMGR have classes and seminars for all traders, from the novas to the expert trader.

Michael Crist

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Forex Thoughts and the near future‏

I am working dilligently on getting in the last piece the SL Settings, Ihave setup several demo's and I can tell you the SL does work now, all Ineed to do is get it on the website and defaults setup for usage... Thisweek/month on the 5k account, didn't grow as much as the first week, butyesterday was quite helpful. We are now at a full 50% increase in the 5kaccount using 1mini.

I am contacting today MBT, to see if they are ready for new accounts forMT4, as soon as they are, I will be setting up the 5k, account there and youcan watch it. This will be a live account and published on the web.

Now, markets....

Interesting market news with CPI data and TIC data out today. In some ways,todays news is as important as NFP, so lets pay attention to the forecastedvs results. See if they are getting closer.

As far as suspension/non-suspension, if I get into trades in 1st hr, willlet those work out, if not, I will shut down. Till Sunday...

Overall the market has had some small / medium trends, CAD is looking toretrace, in my opinion we had a correction in the market that may wellresume movements, Sunday I plan on looking at weekly, daily and setting somelines, or putting the Dmark on to help with that...


Biggest runners have been the cad, eur, EUR took a 400 pip run, on the 4hr,Breaking the 200 on the daily, Looking at the weekly though shows aconsolidation, so I expect to see (barring any real news) the EUR droppingback down to the 200 on the daily and confirming the consolidation thru endof may and june.

CAD has had a bigger oscillation, you can expect that with this pair as the$ when moving will affect oil and move the CAD also. Still you can see somesimilarities between the 2. Daily oscillation around 200MA is apparent andthe weekly oscillation are getting smaller as well.

AUD/USD - Breaking thru the 200 will quite possibly fall back to the 200,this is a weekly retracement and looking to consolidate along the weekly aswell.

I am still seeing the beginning's of the summer consolidation, this is aGREAT thing as we will make the most during this timeframe with the leastrisk... So with that I am getting accounts ready, new acocunts inplace ifneeded and I suggest those that have been testing and getting a feel forthis to do the same...

Our demo accounts, the 1k account, has gained 15.00, at 0.01 lots, I amgoing to bump that up to 0.05 lots Sunday and let it run, the restrictionsof time, and adding in the SL certaily has protected the profits on the runsfrom the cad and Eur so I think it can handle the larger lotsize... We shallsee, this account is research to find how large of a lotsize we can use onthe big 8 with a 1k account.

The 5k, is doing fine, at 50% increase, I would safely say if you can open a5k account, you should be able to run at least 1/2 mini to start and 1 minionce you have let it run a bit.

Overall I am pleased with the EA, and PLEASED with the results, at thistime, so far the only account I have manually worked with a bit is the liveaccount, the others have been running without interruption .

NEXT WEEK --- memorial weekend, WED night is it for me, I am on vacation onthe "rolling thunder" ride to the Vietnam Veterans Memorial wall thru theweekend and then the wife and I will be riding the "blue ridge Parkway" onthe way home. Back online the following Wed. I will leave the demo's running,but my live will be shut down.

To all our veterans(yes I am one also) Thank you , thank you , thank you.Without the freedoms you fought for, and the friends that died for it, wewouldn't have this opportunity today, and I wouldn't be here. I cannot thank you enough.
Andy <> Stapleton
www.eaFXTrader.com

This is a simple report.from John on the EA

We are not trading at the moment. “They” control the horizontal AND the vertical.


The market continued to short the USD overnight, with a big push on the AUD, the GBP, the EUR, and the CAD.

The GBPCHF and the EURCHF has been consolidating during this time.

The USDCHF is currently consolidating after its large move. After such large and aggressive moves on the other USD pairs, it is not wise to trade them because we don’t know yet if they are going to consolidate at their new price points or ‘snap back” from being oversold.

Today is the end of the month and tomorrow the beginning of May. We continue to see the last week of a month and the first week of the month as being the most volatile, and therefore the most dangerous for the ea.

So…we are not trading. Tomorrow is Friday, end of week, first day of a new month, and generally we don’t trade the short Friday afternoon market.

So…we are not trading.

The GBP came out with some healthy news this morning, beating expectations, which gave the European market a burst of energy to further sell the USD, but that burst seems to have been short lived and prices appear to be retracing. All–in-all, during the week, many of the consumer confidence reports were much better than expected, making those more risk tolerant decide to sell their US dollars and invest them in the AUD and CAD (as well as others) but particularly the AUD and CAD as they are commodity countries and have a lot to benefit from consumer confidences.

Oh, and did I mention, we are not trading.

Let the market settle down and find it feet.

Let it begin to consolidate and then we will be back at the trading desk, ready to harvest pips.

John_eaFXTrading

thoughts from Andy

Trading - Some Euro concern rising?We got a nasty European Commission downgrade of growth per key news above; plus this morning from Wolfgang Münchau, writing in the Financial Times:
"Governments are not coming clean on the scale of the crisis. Süddeutsche Zeitung, the German newspaper, recently revealed an internal memo from Bafin, the country's banking regulator, showing the estimated scale of write-offs would be more than €800bn ($1,061bn, £712bn), about a third of Germany's annual gross domestic product. By comparison, the entire capital and reserves of its monetary and financial institutions were only €441.5bn in February. If the leaked number is true, it would mean the German financial system is broke.[9:09:15 AM] Andy_eaFXTrader says: watch for dollar strength