Market Thoughts‏

Well a bit of a rough week for me, fussin that I have had a losing weekhere.....

But, I look at it, $788.43 gained on a 5k account in 1 month, Live with MBT.(sometimes despite myself)...

That is a 15.8% Increase in the account if I stop now...

So to put in into perspective....

15% increase, and we are at the end of the quarter,FOMC out, Market don'thave a clue, Stocks has been down and up in a 500 point oscillation. Punditsare about to commit suicide since no one has any bearing...

I think I will celebrate instead of feeling aggravated.......

Next week is 4th July, make sure your NOT trading day before holiday breakand until after holiday break.

Sunday, I am going to look over fundementals of the market, and giveeveryone my thoughts, also tell you what I am looking for. Basically the EAtakes care of most everything, EXCEPT fundementals, that is the clues weneed to look for and study a bit. Not hard, and not a lot, just enough tosay, "market is not where I want it to be"....

We will also send out the 5k account and my live account with MBT out forstats to look at... Have a GREAT Weekend.

Andy <> Stapleton

Friday thoughts‏ from Andy

Wild week this week.... Definitly wild, the 1200 or so pip moves on Wedcertainly helped trading and the loss's that occurred on the EUR/CAD daybefore..

I am pleased to hear that quite a few are 20%- 40% up on the accounts sincethey started as well as this month alone.... This tells me we are on theright track...

We are still working on a more streamlined website, trying to simplify it asmuch as possible. For this weekend my suggestion is to review your tradestyle, make sure it is what you want..

G20 meeting thru Sunday, so I will shut down for the weekend and restartMonday...This is also the last 2 weeks of the quarter, expect some repositioning andsetup for some retracements/consolidations that will startup the july - septarea as most of EU will be vacationing.

I have been noticing quite a few are reapplying templates constantly....

Here is my suggestion,


IF your using your personal computer for demo, do as you wish... But themore things that you run, the internet may get slower , and that can affectyour trading.

If it is a LIVE account, spend the 400-500 bucks and BUY a dedicatedmachine, or click on the ForexVPS link on the website and setup the VPS. ITIS WORTH YOUR MONEY. We have 3 VPS accounts, and I also run 2 dedicatedtrading computers at my house, so don't skimp on it..

You should Not have to reapply each day, I don't, I reset each machine onSunday, basically turning them off on Friday and restarting Sundayafternoon. IF your switching timeframes a lot, let me know, it could bepartly the issue, I will attempt to get around it.


On another note, TEXT, since we have quite a few newbies in the group, Iwill reiterate the TEXT, a TICK or 2 may enter you into a trade when theTEXT never changes, ALSO demo vs live can be different in pips andcalcuations of the internal algorithms... Even between people.


1st is the calcuations, If the market is moving, then you may not see thetext change , as that DOES cause flickering which I consider annoying.. Soit is last on the list to be done. And if another tick does come in , thenit is skipped.


So if the text doesn't change , and you think it should, then reapplying thetemplates will not help as since it RESETS everything, you may not get intoa trade you need to get into. Or get into a bunch you don't want to...Again. The calc's are first , and the program will do it's job whether ittells you everything or not....unfortunately the MT4 platform causesthese issues, and my job is to basically make sure the TRADING is accurate,more than display....


Build 1032 will be out soon, this will automatically refresh the screen once, each time of your time settings so if your 1pm to 5pm, it will make surethat text is refreshed at 1pm and 5pm...

Also it should smooth out some calls to the internet as well.


Thanks for everything, we are definilly doing well..

Andy <> Stapleton

Andy's trading thoughts -- brokers and accounts‏

In a discussion this morning, we talked about how to treat an account andmake it work. FAR to often this gets to be a game, highest score wins, wellthat really is not the goal.

What is the goal? GET MONEY BACK... Far to often we build an account, andsee profits thrown away and cannot restart...

After losing 400k from a broker that NEVER had a issue with the NFA, thenBLAM, shut down with 800k of funds in it, losing about 1/2, my philosophychanged.


The starting amount of your account should be what you can afford to lose,give to your children (expecting not to get back, or family). MIN Baseamount is what it would take to run 1 mini lot with suffient reserve (10kfor the EA).


So lets say that is 5k. (current amount I am starting with MBT).


Step 1: EACH month it grows, even if it is 50 bucks, I am pulling the fundsback down to my base till I get back ALL of the 5-10k first.

So now, if we are talking 5-10% gains, then we are looking at several monthsof patience as this money is returned and collected.

Step 2: once this has been ALL returned, then I would be pulling 1/2 thegains each month allowing the funds to grow till I have a BASE amount thatallows me to pull my expectation of gains back. At the moment with current %gain proven on the EA, that is around 50k.

Step 3: EACH month after that, I will Pull ALL funds back to the baseamount. Leaving NONE in there except the base...


This is no different than say a dividend paying stock or company, thedividends you would then fund other investments that are less risky and payas well.

That is my goal. And what you will see as I move forward with the MBTaccount.


Comments by Andy Stapleton

This week - and thoughts‏

Well we seem to be doing much better with the 1031 build, attached is one of our newest members Jane, from a group in FL, this is her results for 1 week on a demo account.

I started a Live 5k account last week, also and using 1/2 mini as we recommend, it has gained 10% already, little over 530.00 for the 8 days. I will be publishing this on the web next week each day.

NFP today is out, so I am off,

Also we are going to be rebuilding the website to streamline some issues, and make it easier to change or use. so that will be a couple of weeks out but don't be surprised when it shows up..... With this new website, we will have the ability for the accounts to show you your STATS like we have, couple of info's on your part and blam, your own stats on the screen, giving you the ability to view them or publish them to your friends....

Membership, we are little over 1/2 way there on memberships to our limit, I am going thru demo's accounts and those that have been playing for a long time, either need to get motivated, or I will open the slot to someone else..... no offense, but as the live accounts grow, paying attention to those that have risk will take precidence... since we had been changing and modifying the EA for awhile, the extra month was "the right thing to do"....

I will say this; the last few years development has been a Love/chore/hateful/nasty/wonderful/never do it again/won't stop now, experience I have had in my life, and frankly I am proud of not only where we are , but that y'all are here and reaping the benefits also....

MBT----- yes, talking with them to get us in as early as possible, I expect that late this month ,early next they should be ready, this is a wonderful opportunity for MT4 traders for sure... once they are ready you will get a email from me with a link to get started.

IF you are new and want to learn a bit of the basics, as well as get a good JW can help you over at www.forexmgr.com he has intimate knowledge of the trading styles I use.

If your wondering where to open an account, click on the FXRebates image on the website, they have several that use MT4 and give you back money for your trading....also, if your waiting for MBT, email me, I will put together a list for them ...

Some thoughts on the market‏

Last week we saw some pretty strong movements out of the pairs against thedollar, does that mean you need to suspend it? No, actually as we have always learned, after each move there is a restperiod, that is what we are looking for.. EUR -- resistance on the daily and weekly are coming up, should start toslow trading a bit this month thru the EU vacation time in July aug. GBP -- been running a week or 2 but it is still a retracement on the weekly,so expect some resistance to start showing up soon... With choppiness.. AUD -- same story different pairs, as the US economy shows signs or isproported to be hitting bottom a lot of funds sitting on the sidelines arestarting to trickle into the market, commodities and oil, driving the dollardown... Now, here is my thoughts......... We have had for a couple of quarters some "flight to safety" as the punditsand others have said we are in the next big depression, the acts of bernakeand G-man have thrown a bit of brakes on it, but certainly the "raining" ofdollars onto the market may come back to bite them in the buttocks. There CERTAINLY have been mistakes in this debacle that will start todisplay their ugliness soon, depending on how severe that is , will dependon market. Here is what I am watching...... GM - if the do file bankrupcty, that will reverberate through the market,and cause some dollar moves, as some scaring will happen, so watch forabrupt strong moves the other direction this week. As the President presents the next big spending plan, expect some fights andarguing there, G-man is flying to china to assure china we are not completeidiots and "kiss backsides" so they don't pull the plug on is.... We live in interesting times, this month is the end of the 2cnd quarter, andshould be quite interesting to see how they market sets up for summerquarter. Andy <> Stapletonwww.eaFXTrader.com your Final Solution for MT4 automated Trading

Analyzing the flow of the charts

Flow of the chart means to use the natural progression of the technical chart to anticipate the eventual out come of the trade.How can you tell the direction is going short or long?The first thing that you must understand is that all charts no matter what time frame you are viewing are building in the same manner with no exceptions from the 1 minute to the 1 month.By paying attention to the indicators you are able, for a short time, relative to the chart you are analyzing, you may be able to anticipate the short term out come, this work very well when anticipate the one hour trade plan , what I mean by “short time” and “short term” is the candle that is building on the higher chart possibly the following candle.Never any further then that.You must have in your indicators a way to tell over all direction I use 10, 20, 50, and the 89 EMA’s, you may use the EMA’s that works best for you. You have to understand what the EMA’s are telling you .When looking for and entry the EMA’S can help, if you are going long and you are close to a 10 EMA on the day chart you may want to wait until the price has broken the day chart 10 EMA point.Most of the time when the price hits an EMA on a higher chart the price will take a draw back, this draw back can cause you to get stopped out, depending on your stop loss setting, to prevent this from happening to you, first don’t trade if you are close to a day 10 EMA until after you have passed it. Same with the 4 hour chart 10 EMA and the price trend line.Let’s take the same situation and find out how we can tell if it will break on through or if the 10 EMA of the day is the turn around point.You must remember that the higher the chart the more solid the resistance or the support is.Note:(For instance the 15 minute 10 EMA or trend line is much easier to break, then the 30 minute the same applies as you go up in time frames.30 easier then the 1hr. 1 hr easier then the 4 hr, 4 hr easier then the day, day easier then the week ,week easier then the month this is particularly true when you are in a one our trade plan trade)You will be looking at the 4 hour chart first (remember that the day is close to the 10 EMA and we are looking to go long.Note:If the EMA’s on the 4 hour are consolidated it makes it a little hard to find direction,With that being said, if your EMA’s are starting to spread to the long side on the 4 hour chart, then the evidence is there for your day to continue long.(BUT it is not guaranteed)Now we need to validate the trade, when using any trade plan you must have a way to validate the trade the way to do this is look back at the 1 hour chart you are looking for two main indications on the 1 hour chart. The EMA’s need to be spreading apart to the long direction, the wider the better, this will give you an indication that the 4 hour and day may continue long. The other indicator you are looking for is the CCI to be at the bottom (over sold) of the scale.Why are we looking at the CCI?If the CCI is at the bottom of the scale then there is more of a chance for the price to go up rather then down. We are going to want to have this to be true also on the 30 minute chart.Now that we have all that checked out and all of our charts are showing that we have more of a chance to go long then short, then we can be more comfortable about staying in a trade that is going to hit the 10 EMA of the day chart.Note:If the 15 minute has the EMA’s spread wide and the CCI over sold heading long this will help to confirm this move going long.Now let’s look at how to tell that the price is going to possibly turn or draw back to the short, at the 10 EMA of the day chart,Again you start with the 4 hour chart and find out the attitude of the EMA’s. Just for example sake lets say that we are using the one hour trade plan and the EMA’s are just starting to brake to the north and the day is right up against it’s 10 EMA. So far the 4 hr and the day are telling you that it MAY continue long.Let’s validate the trade.We go to the 1 hour and see that the 10 EMA is now starting to curve down and the price is candle is below the 10 EMA on the 1 hour chart this is an indication that the move to the long is possibly slowing or is drawing backThis would NOT be the time to enter a trade going long.If you go on back to the 30 minute and see that the EMA’s are crossing over and heading short and spreading apart, Which is going the opposite direction of the 4 hr and day there is more of a chance that the 10 EMA of the day is the turn around point, and it is going to at the very least draw back the current day candle, back to a previous price. You would want to wait until it finishes that draw back before you try to go long again.Note:You may want to at this time start to evaluate the possibility of going the other direction (short) and start looking for an entry using the validation process making sure that it is not just a pull back to the 4 hour 10 EMA.The 15 minute and the CCI of all the charts can help to identify the pull back on a higher chart or the return to the trend.The CCI is important to the evaluation and you have to evaluate it on each time frame individually.You can get an idea of the more likely direction if you are looking to go long and all the CCI’s on all lower charts are at the bottom (over sold) of the scale then you have more of a chance to go long. If the CCI’s are at the top (over bought) on all charts except the 4 hour or day then there is a real chance that the 4 hour and eventually the day will retrace or pull back.Note:(You can not anticipate direction by looking at the CCI only it lags too much).Note:This is important when you combine the EMA direction with the CCI direction when they are agreeing with each other then the stronger the move to that direction.If the CCI is going down and the EMA’s are going up depending on the spread of the EMA’s then you may only be doing a pull back on that particular chart and not a change in direction over all.Recap:The technique is based upon the fact that the charts are all built in the same manner and they are all built from one formula base on tick data. To explain a little more this is how the charts are built.Tick data is compiled to build the1 minute candle. It takes five 1 minute candles build the 5 minute candle. Three 5 minute candles build the 15 minute candle. It takes two 15’s build the 30 minute candle. Two 30’s builds the 1 hour candle. Four 1hour candles build the 4 hour candle. Six 4hour candles to build the day candle. Five 5 day candles build the week candle, 4 week candles to build the 1 mouth candle.You may ask why did you go through all that ?The reason is once you understand the way candles are built then it is easy to see how you can look at the lower charts and see what the upper charts may do. Also be able to see the one hour trade plan develop.I hope that this is going to help you when you analyze the charts.Thank youJ. W. Stapleton

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Here are what some of our current members have to say

I had spent thousands of dollars to learn Forex trading through another company, including investments in their software and training programs. I was sadly disappointed in their non-comprehensive and non-personalized approach which did not take into consideration my long-term goals nor my initial inexperience in this market. I’ve been a painting contractor for most of my adult life, so even spending a steady amount of time at my computer was, by itself, a lifestyle change. Two years later, with too much money wasted and no significant improvement in my knowledge base, I become acquainted with Forex Managers, and since have become an eager student of JW and Andy Stapleton. Their desire that I be taught in a way that would be efficient for me was inspiring—not only is their proprietary software effective, rational and easy to use, the combination of their confidence in my ability to learn and their willingness to work with me at a level I can comprehend have made all the difference. The level of integrity they express in how they treat their students, and their encouragement along the way, have made very real to me a future in which I will be able to provide for my family and actually enjoy what I do day to day. I’m a terrific example that, whether a beginner or expert, Forex Managers will contribute to your ultimate success as well.
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To: JW Stapleton of Forexmgr, Anyone that is looking for a method/information source that works within the Forex market.

The program seems to work very well in “all market conditions” (choppy to long term trends). The methods that forexmgr uses is very flexible.

I have been in the markets (Commodities, Options and Forex) for about 6 years and I can honestly say that until I found Forexmgr I was just floundering and not very consistence in my successful trades. I used plans/systems and some of them cost a lot of money and after some time I became very discouraged and lost a lot more of my money. Each time I used a new system the results were always the same, however, in the long term only picking up a few new good points (so not all was a total loss). Lighter pockets and systems that in effect did not adapt to all markets conditions that seem to change with the weather.

With the method that “JW” teaches, I and many others in the group, will attest to the fact that you have the tools to deal with all types of market conditions. He speaks in a way that all can relate to and learn how to deal with the changing markets. JW is very friendly and has the patience of jobe and loves helping people any time of the day and night. I would recommend watching and listening to his classes. If you are new and unsure of the forex market or making bad trades with big pullbacks or losses and you want to learn how to possibly prevent this from happening, then this is the place for you.

The other thing about this group is that everyone helps everyone.

Hope to see you at Forexmgr.com

Happy successful trades to you.

Ken Calkins

I'm not new to trading, I traded the commodities market during the late 70's and early 80's. I was one of the unlucky one's to be on the opposite side of the Hunt brothers when they were trying to corner the silver market. I lost over five thousand. Made it back in wheat. A couple of years ago I got back into trading in the S&P500. I used a 5min chart for entering and exiting trades, very fast pace to say the least. Terrible system in choppy markets.
The reason for this bit of history is that I have some experience trading and know just about every mistake you can make because I made most of them. Over trading, moving stops, going on vacation with open trades, just to name a few. Most of my trading mistakes were do to emotion. The psychological factor that's involved in trading these markets is enormous. If you don't have a good system, if you have trouble controlling your emotions, and you don't have excellent ongoing support, don't trade. Eventually you will lose.
A company called FOREXMGR founded by Andy and JW Stapleton have put it all together. Their Desktop system works. It monitors my trades and gets me in and out of the trade based on parameters I give it, keeping a lot of the emotion out of trading. Training and support are excellent. Chat room training 3 mornings a week and chat room market reviews with training 4 nights a week.
They also provide seminar training. I attended a seminar in Las Vegas and was more than satisfied with what was provided. Live trading, different levels of training, and plenty of one on one This isn't a get rich quick scheme. It takes work to make money in any market. If you take part in the chat room support, learn how to use your charts to anticipate direction, understand support and resistance etc., and put in the time and effort that you need, then you will be on the right track with FOREXMGR.
Best Regards,
Bill Dick

Morning JW
I just wanted to drop you a note and say thanks for all the help from forexmgr.com. I’ve been with you now for about 2 years and I have learned a lot. I am getting much better at reading the charts and setting up to monitor trades and make pips. I have made far more pips since working with you folks than I ever did with the “easy” group. When I have a question I know that I can give a call and get the question answered.
Again, thanks for all your efforts and keep up the good work, the on going education is important, and even though we may not say so very often, it is much appreciated.
Still learning
Bob Lannon

My decision to subscribe to FOREXMGR has been one of the best business decisions I have made. Their constant training and repetition have been a valuable source of learning. FOREXMGR have classes and seminars for all traders, from the novas to the expert trader.

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Forex Thoughts and the near future‏

I am working dilligently on getting in the last piece the SL Settings, Ihave setup several demo's and I can tell you the SL does work now, all Ineed to do is get it on the website and defaults setup for usage... Thisweek/month on the 5k account, didn't grow as much as the first week, butyesterday was quite helpful. We are now at a full 50% increase in the 5kaccount using 1mini.

I am contacting today MBT, to see if they are ready for new accounts forMT4, as soon as they are, I will be setting up the 5k, account there and youcan watch it. This will be a live account and published on the web.

Now, markets....

Interesting market news with CPI data and TIC data out today. In some ways,todays news is as important as NFP, so lets pay attention to the forecastedvs results. See if they are getting closer.

As far as suspension/non-suspension, if I get into trades in 1st hr, willlet those work out, if not, I will shut down. Till Sunday...

Overall the market has had some small / medium trends, CAD is looking toretrace, in my opinion we had a correction in the market that may wellresume movements, Sunday I plan on looking at weekly, daily and setting somelines, or putting the Dmark on to help with that...


Biggest runners have been the cad, eur, EUR took a 400 pip run, on the 4hr,Breaking the 200 on the daily, Looking at the weekly though shows aconsolidation, so I expect to see (barring any real news) the EUR droppingback down to the 200 on the daily and confirming the consolidation thru endof may and june.

CAD has had a bigger oscillation, you can expect that with this pair as the$ when moving will affect oil and move the CAD also. Still you can see somesimilarities between the 2. Daily oscillation around 200MA is apparent andthe weekly oscillation are getting smaller as well.

AUD/USD - Breaking thru the 200 will quite possibly fall back to the 200,this is a weekly retracement and looking to consolidate along the weekly aswell.

I am still seeing the beginning's of the summer consolidation, this is aGREAT thing as we will make the most during this timeframe with the leastrisk... So with that I am getting accounts ready, new acocunts inplace ifneeded and I suggest those that have been testing and getting a feel forthis to do the same...

Our demo accounts, the 1k account, has gained 15.00, at 0.01 lots, I amgoing to bump that up to 0.05 lots Sunday and let it run, the restrictionsof time, and adding in the SL certaily has protected the profits on the runsfrom the cad and Eur so I think it can handle the larger lotsize... We shallsee, this account is research to find how large of a lotsize we can use onthe big 8 with a 1k account.

The 5k, is doing fine, at 50% increase, I would safely say if you can open a5k account, you should be able to run at least 1/2 mini to start and 1 minionce you have let it run a bit.

Overall I am pleased with the EA, and PLEASED with the results, at thistime, so far the only account I have manually worked with a bit is the liveaccount, the others have been running without interruption .

NEXT WEEK --- memorial weekend, WED night is it for me, I am on vacation onthe "rolling thunder" ride to the Vietnam Veterans Memorial wall thru theweekend and then the wife and I will be riding the "blue ridge Parkway" onthe way home. Back online the following Wed. I will leave the demo's running,but my live will be shut down.

To all our veterans(yes I am one also) Thank you , thank you , thank you.Without the freedoms you fought for, and the friends that died for it, wewouldn't have this opportunity today, and I wouldn't be here. I cannot thank you enough.
Andy <> Stapleton
www.eaFXTrader.com

This is a simple report.from John on the EA

We are not trading at the moment. “They” control the horizontal AND the vertical.


The market continued to short the USD overnight, with a big push on the AUD, the GBP, the EUR, and the CAD.

The GBPCHF and the EURCHF has been consolidating during this time.

The USDCHF is currently consolidating after its large move. After such large and aggressive moves on the other USD pairs, it is not wise to trade them because we don’t know yet if they are going to consolidate at their new price points or ‘snap back” from being oversold.

Today is the end of the month and tomorrow the beginning of May. We continue to see the last week of a month and the first week of the month as being the most volatile, and therefore the most dangerous for the ea.

So…we are not trading. Tomorrow is Friday, end of week, first day of a new month, and generally we don’t trade the short Friday afternoon market.

So…we are not trading.

The GBP came out with some healthy news this morning, beating expectations, which gave the European market a burst of energy to further sell the USD, but that burst seems to have been short lived and prices appear to be retracing. All–in-all, during the week, many of the consumer confidence reports were much better than expected, making those more risk tolerant decide to sell their US dollars and invest them in the AUD and CAD (as well as others) but particularly the AUD and CAD as they are commodity countries and have a lot to benefit from consumer confidences.

Oh, and did I mention, we are not trading.

Let the market settle down and find it feet.

Let it begin to consolidate and then we will be back at the trading desk, ready to harvest pips.

John_eaFXTrading

thoughts from Andy

Trading - Some Euro concern rising?We got a nasty European Commission downgrade of growth per key news above; plus this morning from Wolfgang Münchau, writing in the Financial Times:
"Governments are not coming clean on the scale of the crisis. Süddeutsche Zeitung, the German newspaper, recently revealed an internal memo from Bafin, the country's banking regulator, showing the estimated scale of write-offs would be more than €800bn ($1,061bn, £712bn), about a third of Germany's annual gross domestic product. By comparison, the entire capital and reserves of its monetary and financial institutions were only €441.5bn in February. If the leaked number is true, it would mean the German financial system is broke.[9:09:15 AM] Andy_eaFXTrader says: watch for dollar strength

THOUGHTS FROM JOHN ON THE EA

Fundamentals: There is a lot of news coming out for the rest of the week including GBP Official Bank Rate, Euro Minimum Bid Rate, and comments following, unemployment and employment for many countries, and housing starts, so be aware that the market may be very choppy. So keep your eye on the news closely before just letting the ea go for a run. (Open Forex Factory and scan through all the news items.)

AUD/USD: This pair seems to have finally rested at after aggressively running to the 38.2 fib line on the larger time frames. Unless major news pushes this pair further, I would look for the aud/usd to continue to consolidate between .7250 and .7475 (38.2 fib).

Euro/AUD The price has been trending as the Aussie has been taking back some of it losses. The price is headed towards the 61.8 Fib line on the larger time frame charts, but has been consolidating for the past day and a half. As major news is coming out, I would be very cautious on this one. The recent news on the Euro has been more negative than positive, and for the Aussie, more paotivie than negative. If this trend continues, then we would see the price moving to 1.7650 area of the 61.8 fib.

Euro/CHF Price is holding on the 38.2% fib line. Price has oscillating along this line for 2 weeks now. This pair has a tendency to run in a consolidated mode for a while and then go into a 400+ pip tend to correct itself. The 13, 50, and 89 ma’s are consolidating very tightly on the 4 hr chart which may mean a move is afoot soon… the ma’s don’t like to be squeezed together. I think this pair will require some strong news for or against one of the currencies to make it move.

EUR/USD Price seems to have held at the 23.6% fib on the larger time frame charts. The pair seems oversold on the 4 hr and the recent 4hr price has been using the 23.6 fib as support. Look for news to push this below the 1.3200 price point.

GBP/CHF The pair has been slowing creeping back to the 23.6 fib line on the larger time frame. And in doing so has been a steady oscillating pair, with minor corrections every every 2 to 3 days. I would look to see the price consolidate on the current move of today before trading.

GBP/USD The price currently consolidates on the 1.500 price point, which it has tried to break through 6 times before since last November. Watch the news reports this week and there will probably be a lot of volatility. This you may want to not trade until all the relevant news is out.

USD/CAD Price is still in a downward channel after 9 weeks. The past 2 days has seen the price hold at or near the 200 ma on the day chart. Upcoming news will be important to see if the 200 ma holds. Tread carefully.

USD/CHF Price is holding above the 38.2% on the fib lines, which is at 1.1300 on the larger time frame charts. Wait and see what the news brings on this pair as it likes to move quickly on short term trends, which is not good for our trading.

Today’s Q & A:

Q. What money management is built into the system?

A. Proper Money Management is a human decision, a decision make by the individual trader. It is not determined by an EA.

One of the most important aspects of Money Management is Lot size. You, the individual trader, determine this. Realize that due to the very high number of trades the eaFXTrader places, the Lot size per Entry is of critical importance.

Some users of the eaFXTrader use 0.1 Lot (this = 1 mini-Lot) per $20,000 in account size. Please do not read this as professional financial advice, but rather a rough estimate of Lot size per account size that some folks consider to be a smart way to trade.



John_eafxtrader

Tuesday,May 05,2009 Charts and FAQ of the day

Tuesday, May 05, 2009 Charts and FAQ of the Day:

Good day... Hola! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, today is Cinco De Mayo... It's a fun day so go have some fun!

euro, traded all the way to 1.34 and change, saw profit taking, which caused it to drop back down, only to end the day moving past 1.34 again... Overnight, the euro hit 1.3438, but once again, profits and the fact that stock futures are showing weakness have brought the Big Dog back under 1.34...

The Aussie dollar (A$) also saw a nice bid all day long yesterday, and moved past 74-cents, and remained there overnight! The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged last night, and delivered a fairly balanced statement afterward...

The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet this week, and some of thoughts in the markets here, is that the ECB will move rates lower. Those thoughts are also responsible for the drag on the euro to bring it below 1.34 this morning...

The data cupboard is pretty empty today, after yesterday's second tier reports of Pending Home Sales, and Construction Spending printed, and left us guessing what really is happening in the economy... Today, though, we'll get a clear, concise, view of the economy from our Fed Chairman, Big Ben Bernanke! OK... We can wish can't we?


AUD/CAD – A month of consolidation on the Day chart, along with a 4-hr Pendant formation. Looks like it is fixing to breakout, watch for a move in the next couple of days.

Aud/USD - Breakout on the Day and 4-hr charts. No sign of consolidation yet.

EUR/CAD – (ditto from yesterday)
was out of range last few days, with a 4hr trend occurring. I expect some oscillation, larger ones so I am still watching it vs trading it. Best case in my book is a Conservative set, Only trading 1 set of trades on it for the time being.

EUR/USD -- The 200 on the 4hr has been broken thru to the up side. Watch for news items as that can change the pattern of Upward movement. With the European meetings to discuss Rate changes coming later this week, look for decent for consolidation over next couple of days..

GBP/USD – Strong upward moves on the 4hr And Day charts. The 4hr chart has price stretching away from the 200 MA. Out of Range for now, so look for a possible pullback.

USD/CAD -- after an extended move over last few days, I look for it to remain Out of Range generally, or to consolidate briefly before resuming a run down.

USD/CHF The 200 on the 4hr has been broken thru to the down side. Large Oscillations taking place on the 4-hr, but Day has general consolidations.

GBP/CHF -- currently crossing in and out of range, but looking to consolidate. I am looking to put this on today, will review again at noon for any changes and decide then.

EUR/JPY – 1 hr and 4 hr Oscillations with sharp moves in and out of Range. Looking to consolidate.



FAQ of the Day:


Tip 7.
A gentleman had recently lost his job and asked me if he should open a Forex account using money from his credit card. My very short answer to him was “hell no”.

Here’s the longer version of that answer:
Trading in the ForEx Market is Speculative and involves a substantial Risk of Loss. This type of trading should be undertaken with funds that are allocated to a High Risk/High Return investment vehicle, and should not be considered as part of a traditional investment portfolio allocation.

The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

If you are considering using funds that you cannot afford to loose, we strongly recommend a savings account that is FDIC insured or U.S government backed securities.

discussion with Andy about the EA / turn it off or on

There seems to be a lot of discussions on on/off when and what... Here iswhat I have on the wall... As MY rules..
lets give a concise idea in my book...
12) IF the pair is OUT of RANGE -----look at day and 4hr, if it is a retracement, or looks to consolidate overnext few days because of that, then , you can turn it on. or wait another4hr period and recheck.....

2) IF the pair is out of range, and it is TRENDING.LEAVE IT OFF. till you get a retracementthen refer to 1.

3) if it is in-range and fundemental news is to be announced, -- SUSPEND ITtill afterwards and you know the fall out.

4) if it is in range, and been making trades for 2--3 days, start SUSPECTINGIT... IE it will NOT rest forever

5) Lots /Leverage, -- DON'T CHANGE LOTSIZE unless you can afford to lose 200pips * 5 (average) and DON'T CHANGE LOTSIZE unless it is in a TREND andlooking to start another consolidation segement so you can max into new lots
Andy <> Stapleton
www.eaFXTrader.com

Monday, April 27, 2009 Charts and FAQ of the Day: on the EA

Two “Macro Economic Views” on what is (or will be) taking place in the world currency market.
For a View for this week:
No major Red Flag economic news coming out today. Performance in the U.S. and European Stock Markets will be a key. Economic data to be released includes European a & U.S. consumer-confidence indexes, as well as figures on employment and inflation. The U.S. will also release its gross domestic product info and the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meets.
At present, the consensus call in the market is that the worst is behind us. But if the automakers file for bankruptcy, causing additional thousands in unemployment, we could be in for a second BIG dip to the downside.
For a longer term View (this Quarter):
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, is up 4.2 percent this year, after falling 5.4 percent at this point in 2008.
Strategists increased their forecasts for the dollar this year against all those currencies, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Since January, the analysts have boosted their year-end dollar forecast 2.2 percent to $1.32 per euro from $1.35, and 5.2 percent to 101 yen from 96 in February, the median of more than 40 estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
So far, data show undiminished foreign demand for U.S. financial assets Net Purchases totaled $22 billion in February as China and Japan added to their holdings of U.S. government debt, the Treasury said. The Fed’s holdings of Treasuries on behalf of foreign central banks and other institutions rose 8.7 percent this year to $1.84 trillion.
More foreign money flowed into U.S. stock markets in the 20 business days ended April 15 than in 69 percent of the other 20- day periods going back to 1997, according to State Street data. The five-day flow was in the 77.6 percentile, compared with outflows in the last six months that were higher than 86.4 percent of past periods, the data showed.
“We’re at a loss to identify other major currencies that look more attractive” than the dollar, State Street’s Blake said. “The equity-flow data have been dollar supportive almost any way you look at it. When people flood into the equity market they’ve been buying the dollar as well.”



Now for some observations on the Charts. I’ll keep it down to “The Big 8”
I use a Fibonacci on the 4-hr charts (using the most recent High/Low wicks/tails), and view these Fib lines on the 30-min charts. I would like to begin referencing my observations on the Fib.

audusd
a drop early last week created a recent Low (a new 0.0% fib line). It ran up a bit through the week and seems to be settled between the 23.6% and the 76.4% fib lines. This could provide an area of nice Oscillations for the EA to work within for a couple days.

euraud
the pair seems to be Oscillating in a fairly tight range. This could be good for running the EA, but keep in mind the Red Flag economic reports coming out later this week. They could spark a breakout.

eurchf
The last 2 weeks have provided good Oscillations of less than 200 pips. This is the type of chart the EA can work well with. However, note that the current price is pressing down on the recent Lows. I’d like to see it drift up, and continue the Oscillation patterns of the past couple of weeks. However if it falls below 1.5050, then some additional downward pressure could alter the nice patterns we’ve been seeing.

eurusd
Last week, this pair runs up, and overnight it did nothing but run down. The 30-min charts are providing some good Oscillations through all of this. Keep an eye on the $1.2880 Support line, as it is the recent Low from early last week. Also, be aware of the European and U.S. Economic reports due out this week.

gbpchf
Lots of volatility here, as the GBP shows weakness. Be cautious of this pair and play it within tight Trading Times (don’t let the EA run during European morning/afternoon sessions, nor during the U.S. morning session.

gbpusd
Lots of volatility here. 4 of the past 5 weeks have had +400 pip swings. Be cautious of this pair and play it within tight Trading Times (don’t let the EA run during European morning/afternoon sessions, nor during the U.S. morning session.

usdcad
Due to Commodity prices associated with the CAD, there is lots of volatility here. 4 of the past 5 weeks have had +400 pip swings. Be cautious of this pair and play it within tight Trading Times (don’t let the EA run during European morning/afternoon sessions, nor during the U.S. morning session.

usdchf
There is a lot of movement in this pair, but overall it seems to have some nice Oscillations on the 30-min chart over the past 5 days. Be aware of the European and U.S. Economic reports due out this week. But, this pair should continue with its recent Oscillation patterns.


FAQ of the Day:

Q. I do not have a credit card to use with PayPal. What are my payment options?

A. You can set up your personal account with PayPal to take a payment straight out of your bank account. It is an easy process to set up, and thousands do it in this manner. I have 2 or 3 regular monthly payments taken out this way. Never an issue.

morning thoughts from andy on the EA

On my live account , have done well this month, little over 10% gain, from22k, to 26k mostley last 2 weeks... One of the things to go over; Quite a few are using the BOF(12noon to midnight CDT) honestly severaltimes I have shut off by 8pm.... It is a pretty good feeling to have a fewhundred pips for 8hrs... I am not advocating to stop, but I am saying, ifyou already have 100+ pips???? There is one thing that I have learned over 4 years, Greed, that gimme last10 pips will usually cost me vs give me the gains. We are studying timesettings and trading over longer period of time, we arealso setting up the ability to analyse not only our accounts but yours ifyou wish. This all is coming soon. AUD/USD- day chart shows a possible resumption of upward trend, 7290-7300will tell us, a breakthru on that will be the breakout for the trend. EUR/USD - range now between 1.3400 and 1.2900 oscillating on the day in thatrange, I don't see that changing dramatically in the near future giving us asmaller oscillations soon... EUR/AUD- 4hr is consolidating, pushing the day back up. This is a bounceraround the 13 on the 4hr, got a few more days before a good consolidation isapparent. GBP/USD - Good consolidations, 4hr is rangebound in a 2-300 range, thisstill has some legs for a bit, but wouldn't count past another week before amove hits. USD/CHF - Day is consolidated around the 200 SMA, 4hr though has some largeroscillations that has not been kind, the BOF has been good for this keepingus out of difficulties. Watching 4hr to see if support holds. EUR/CHF - been a good choppy move for quite some time, over a few weeks now,I am watching for the 1st move, I find that this one will reset 1-3 days,have a bounce, then rest again. So it is almost due for it. GBP/AUD - oscillating around the 4hr chart, looking to consolidate, but notquite there, the GBP has been volitle so this one has paid off, but berestrictive on hours to trade. USD/CAD - we just had a downmove, it is moving short and got a few more pipsto go for a breakout, we havfe been around the 200 on the day chart sincethe 1st, if we don't break below 1.1998 it should hold. We are at a support,and will see if it holds. AUD/CAD - a daily progression of daily to the upside, had a bit ofretracement back to the 13MA, but holding along that line, so support isaround the 8700 range for now. 4hr is consolidating around the 200 and maygive up a few in this area. USD/CHF - day is consolidated, around the 200ma, but a strong oscillation tothe downside on the 4hr, it is out of range for now and it will beinteresting to see if it will hold and start tighter oscillations . A question on the chat group (and if you are not in it, you should be). What is "out of range" and does it correlate to the indicators on thescreen. Out of range, is simple, NO TRADES-- it is an algorithm based on severalindicators that tells me to not trade so you don't get into trouble... Doesit correlate, not exactly, there is not an indicator for this algorithm, sothe best was to give you one of the oscillators.. Andy <> Stapletonwww.eaFXTrader.com your Final Solution for MT4 automated Trading If you wish to unsubscribe from our mailing list. send email to elist-unsubscribe@eafxtrader.com

thoughts from john on the EA

no buy, hold, sell recommendation

Fundamentals: There is a lot of news coming out tomorrow morning on the Euro, GBP and the USD, so be aware that the market may be very choppy afterwards. Added to that, in the afternoon, there is a Geithner -gusher at 3pm. Friday AND Sunday may be choppy, but not necessarily in a good way. So keep your eye on the news closely before just letting the ea go for a run.

AUD/USD: This pair continues in it upward trend heading for the 200 moving average on the day chart, and is bouncing between the 89 ma and the 200 ma. It looks like the price could be creating a channel on the day. The 4 hr is also bouncing between the 89 and the 200, but in this instance, the 200 is below the price and the 89 above. Unless major news pushes this pair, I would look for the aud/usd to continue to oscillate between .6950 and .7300
Euro/Aud The price is oscillating between the 50 and the 61.8 Fib line on the day chart. Since March 19th the pair was on an aggressive run short and finally stopped at the 61.8 fib and has been oscillating. Look for this pair to hold at this level for a while. The pair has been known to oscillate for a long period of time.
Euro/CHF Price is holding on the 38.2% fib line. Price has oscillated in a very tight range so be careful and look for it to possibly move back up to the 50% fib at 1.5330. This pair has a tendency to run in a consolidated mode for a while and then go into a 400+ pip tend to correct itself. The 13, 50, 89 and 200 ma are consolidating very tightly on the 4 hr chart which may mean a move is afoot soon… the ma’s don’t like to be squeezed together.
Eur/USD Price seems to have held at the 23.6% fib on the day chart. The pair seems oversold on the day and the price is reaching the 89 and the 200 ma on the 4 hr chart. It may rest there until news moves the pair.
GBP/CHF The pair is clearly consolidating between the 38.2 and the 23.6 fib on the day chart. The 4 hr is consolidating on the 13 and the 89 ma’s which this pair seems to like to do before it makes a trend move. I would look for this pair to continue to consolidate.
GBP/USD The price is in a channel on the 4 hr chart and has bounced off support. The pair is currently at the 89 ma on the 4 hr which, during this channel, has provided both support and resistance. I would look for the gbp/usd to hold on this 89 for a little while.
USD/CAD Price is in a downward channel on the 4 hr and I do not see any support of the ma’s at the moment to consolidate the pair, until it hits the 38.2 fib on the day chart at about 1.2000. Tread carefully.
USD/CHF The pair has hit and stopped abruptly on the 89 ma and 200 ma’s on the 4 hr chart. I would expect it to consolidate, with oscillations between 1.1400 and 1.1550 unless news creates a direction. Price is above the 38.2% on the fib lines, which is at 1.1400.
FAQ of the day:


Q. The EA just Entered a number of trades, ALL at the same time, and all with the same [al] and [tp]. Why?

A. This pair was possibly in Suspend mode, due to a volatile movement in the Price. When it came out of Suspend, it entered the quantity of trades that would have occurred had it not been in Suspend mode.


John_eafxtrader

chart observations, economic observations, and FAQ of the Day‏ on the EA

Hi folks, how ‘bout a little “Macro Economic View” on what is (or will be) taking place in the world currency market.

As I mentioned yesterday, the euro may fall to a five-week low against the yen as momentum charts show “sell” signals for the European currency.
However, check this out from April 21 (Bloomberg): German investor confidence rose to the highest level in almost two years in April after stock markets rallied on government and central bank efforts to revive economic growth. So, go figure
The Swiss central bank bought 4.52 billion euros ($5.84 billion) in the first quarter to weaken the franc against the currency of Switzerland’s main trading partners and avoid deflation. So, be aware of their attempts at currency manipulation. It can cause Trends to develop.

Now for some observations on the Charts:
I use a Fibonacci on the 4-hr charts, and view these Fib lines on the 30-min charts. I would like to begin referencing my observations on the Fib. This isn’t something I urge y’all to go, unless you’re a geek.

AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/USD, EUR/AUD
AUDCAD: Quite a Run we saw for the Aussie pairs yesterday. It ran to touch exactly on the 61.8 fib line. Today, it retraced back thru 38.2 to touch exactly on the 23.6 line. It has settled back to where it began at the beginning of the Monday session. I see no reason for it to do much in the way of additional huge move for the next 24 hrs.

AUDCHF: this seems to be in a broad Oscillation of apx 200 pips. Good news for those using the EA on this pair.

AUDUSD: nice Oscillations here. Good news for those using the EA on this pair.
EURAUD: heavy run yesterday, light retracement today. Seems that it may find some footing thru the Asian sessions. But, I’d be out of this pair before the European session begins,

EUR/CHF, EUR/USD
As I noted in the Macro Economic View above, the euro may be heading into additional weakness as it drops below the $1.3000 Support line. It took quite a hit yesterday, and seems to be taking a breather today. For the foreseeable future, play these with caution, and possibly during the Asian Sessions ONLY.


GBP/CHF, GBP/USD
Both pairs are bouncing between a couple of the Fib lines, creating a good Support & Resistance for the next 24 hrs. Good news for those using the EA on this pair.

From Monday: If you’re trading the GBP, you might want to give it plenty of Suspension time so as not be in any Open positions prior to the start of the European Morning Session (GMT 06:00), such as a Suspend time beginning at GMT 04:00 (which is CDT 22:00). This is only my thought on the matter; no recommendations or advice.

USD/CAD, USD/CHF
Both pairs are currently in some tame Oscillations. Good news for those using the EA on this pair.


FAQ of the Day:

Q. Which brokers are you currently live trading with & withdrawing money from?

A. We have found some good brokers, including FXDD, Alpari, and (for non-U.S.citizens there is). MBTrading has a new MT4 trade platform that is offered as of April, 2009.

thoughts from Andy

Every Sunday I kinda take a big picture look for the week ahead. Here are some of the things I look at and for. 1) what area of the YEAR/Quarter am I in, and will that make a difference,at this time, we are in the 1st month of the quarter, 3rd week. 3rd weekusually has some USD news,...... 2) what does the day/4hr charts tell me, the possiblities of the nextweek..... So, here we go.... EUR/CAD, EUR/USD,EUR/AUD are all consolidated, but shows a posiblity ofheading short , not really inside the EMA's that make me confortable, butlooking like it wants to drop a bit. Support area's in this would beimportant as I will look at news items and see if the pair is ready... Secondary, I want to look at those and see if they are "out of range" shortor long, if it is short, fine, not much of a problem as it will still be outof range if the pair goes short. USD/CHF,AUD/CAD, long same as above short, so I just reverse what I amlooking for above... Remainder of the pairs are all on the day chart consolidating, within EMA'sthat is a good sign in my book, GBP/Usd, GPB/CHF, AUD/USD,USD/CAD... Now, we check the 4hr setup, what I have done is setup a profile foreach,easy to switch that way. EUR/CAD , EUR/USD, EUR/AUD are all looking the same on 4hr as day, so myexpectations at the moment is that these three will go short for now... They are all "out of range trading ,so I won't do anything to them tillmorning, if anything and the day chart shows a more strengthed move, then Iwould turn on the conservative flag for 1 entry only.. USD/CHF looks to continue the upward move, but the AUD/CAD had retraced onthe 4hr, the USD/CHF is out of range to the long side, so I will sit andwatch/wait on that one. And pay some attention to the AUD/Cad as some tradesmay happen there. The others are fine, each are in range, working and capable of giving metrades, NEWS wise, I am looking at GBP news and AUD/PPI, at 8:30 that maymove the market some, morning is bland pretty much and we would need towatch the AUD tommorrow evening.... Find attached the current spreadsheet.

Analizing the flow of the charts secong post

Analyzi
Flow of the chart means to use the natural progression of the technical chart to anticipate the eventual out come of the trade.How can you tell the direction is going short or long?The first thing that you must understand is that all charts no matter what time frame you are viewing are building in the same manner with no exceptions from the 1 minute to the 1 month.By paying attention to the indicators you are able, for a short time, relative to the chart you are analyzing, you may be able to anticipate the short term out come, this work very well when anticipate the one hour trade plan , what I mean by “short time” and “short term” is the candle that is building on the higher chart possibly the following candle.Never any further then that.You must have in your indicators a way to tell over all direction I use 10, 20, 50, and the 89 EMA’s, you may use the EMA’s that works best for you. You have to understand what the EMA’s are telling you .When looking for and entry the EMA’S can help, if you are going long and you are close to a 10 EMA on the day chart you may want to wait until the price has broken the day chart 10 EMA point.Most of the time when the price hits an EMA on a higher chart the price will take a draw back, this draw back can cause you to get stopped out, depending on your stop loss setting, to prevent this from happening to you, first don’t trade if you are close to a day 10 EMA until after you have passed it. Same with the 4 hour chart 10 EMA and the price trend line.Let’s take the same situation and find out how we can tell if it will break on through or if the 10 EMA of the day is the turn around point.You must remember that the higher the chart the more solid the resistance or the support is.Note:(For instance the 15 minute 10 EMA or trend line is much easier to break, then the 30 minute the same applies as you go up in time frames.30 easier then the 1hr. 1 hr easier then the 4 hr, 4 hr easier then the day, day easier then the week ,week easier then the month this is particularly true when you are in a one our trade plan trade)You will be looking at the 4 hour chart first (remember that the day is close to the 10 EMA and we are looking to go long.Note:If the EMA’s on the 4 hour are consolidated it makes it a little hard to find direction,With that being said, if your EMA’s are starting to spread to the long side on the 4 hour chart, then the evidence is there for your day to continue long.(BUT it is not guaranteed)Now we need to validate the trade, when using any trade plan you must have a way to validate the trade the way to do this is look back at the 1 hour chart you are looking for two main indications on the 1 hour chart. The EMA’s need to be spreading apart to the long direction, the wider the better, this will give you an indication that the 4 hour and day may continue long. The other indicator you are looking for is the CCI to be at the bottom (over sold) of the scale.Why are we looking at the CCI?If the CCI is at the bottom of the scale then there is more of a chance for the price to go up rather then down. We are going to want to have this to be true also on the 30 minute chart.Now that we have all that checked out and all of our charts are showing that we have more of a chance to go long then short, then we can be more comfortable about staying in a trade that is going to hit the 10 EMA of the day chart.Note:If the 15 minute has the EMA’s spread wide and the CCI over sold heading long this will help to confirm this move going long.Now let’s look at how to tell that the price is going to possibly turn or draw back to the short, at the 10 EMA of the day chart,Again you start with the 4 hour chart and find out the attitude of the EMA’s. Just for example sake lets say that we are using the one hour trade plan and the EMA’s are just starting to brake to the north and the day is right up against it’s 10 EMA. So far the 4 hr and the day are telling you that it MAY continue long.Let’s validate the trade.We go to the 1 hour and see that the 10 EMA is now starting to curve down and the price is candle is below the 10 EMA on the 1 hour chart this is an indication that the move to the long is possibly slowing or is drawing backThis would NOT be the time to enter a trade going long.If you go on back to the 30 minute and see that the EMA’s are crossing over and heading short and spreading apart, Which is going the opposite direction of the 4 hr and day there is more of a chance that the 10 EMA of the day is the turn around point, and it is going to at the very least draw back the current day candle, back to a previous price. You would want to wait until it finishes that draw back before you try to go long again.Note:You may want to at this time start to evaluate the possibility of going the other direction (short) and start looking for an entry using the validation process making sure that it is not just a pull back to the 4 hour 10 EMA.The 15 minute and the CCI of all the charts can help to identify the pull back on a higher chart or the return to the trend.The CCI is important to the evaluation and you have to evaluate it on each time frame individually.You can get an idea of the more likely direction if you are looking to go long and all the CCI’s on all lower charts are at the bottom (over sold) of the scale then you have more of a chance to go long. If the CCI’s are at the top (over bought) on all charts except the 4 hour or day then there is a real chance that the 4 hour and eventually the day will retrace or pull back.Note:(You can not anticipate direction by looking at the CCI only it lags too much).Note:This is important when you combine the EMA direction with the CCI direction when they are agreeing with each other then the stronger the move to that direction.If the CCI is going down and the EMA’s are going up depending on the spread of the EMA’s then you may only be doing a pull back on that particular chart and not a change in direction over all.Recap:The technique is based upon the fact that the charts are all built in the same manner and they are all built from one formula base on tick data. To explain a little more this is how the charts are built.Tick data is compiled to build the1 minute candle. It takes five 1 minute candles build the 5 minute candle. Three 5 minute candles build the 15 minute candle. It takes two 15’s build the 30 minute candle. Two 30’s builds the 1 hour candle. Four 1hour candles build the 4 hour candle. Six 4hour candles to build the day candle. Five 5 day candles build the week candle, 4 week candles to build the 1 mouth candle.You may ask why did you go through all that ?The reason is once you understand the way candles are built then it is easy to see how you can look at the lower charts and see what the upper charts may do. Also be able to see the one hour trade plan develop.I hope that this is going to help you when you analyze the charts.Thank youJ. W. Stapleton

Morning thoughts of the Market‏ on the EA

With the advent of the BOF strategy, coined by our favorite englishman TC,quite a few members are now enjoying 100-300 pips per day average. What does that tell you?, you need to join up with us on the chatroom usingskype. There is a tremendous amount of chatter and discussion on which pairsto trade ,and when. Download skype from www.skype.com make sure yourrunning at least 3.5 version or higher and look us up. Andy_eafxtrader.com ,Thomas_eafxtrader, John_eafxtrader , we will make sure your in the chat andhelp you in anyway we can. I am trading the following pairs from 12noon till 11pm at night, sometimesless my goal is pips, and if I get 200 or 300 in the day, I will shut itoff. Aud/cad, aud/usd, eur/cad, eur/usd, gbp/usd, usd/cad, usd/chf, eur/gbp,eur/aud, gpb/chf. Out of all these pairs, each seem to be racing to a consolidation on the daychart. Which is a great thing for our trading. We will need to watch thelength of time that it rests here. I am looking that next week, which is usually a good week for tradingconsolidations should be wonderful, but I also want to insure that I am notcomplacent enough to think it will last forever... Remember the EUR overeaster. So, since I am flying out today for McAllen TX, a short note on this. When your evaluating pairs, start from the day chart, look to see if it is aretracement/consolidation, look at the ranges that the pairs are in , themore range bound the better. Then drop to the 4hr chart and see if they arealso consolidating or range bound, if they are looking to trend, caution.What this will do is insure that you can inteligently turn on or off the EAto make you money reduce your risk, and make this the most profitable EAever. -------------------------------------------------------------Also, because of the group we have gotten a couple of nice items Felipe of FXRebates is also one of our traders in the group, if youhaven't opened an live account as yet to get running , either click on theFxrebates image on the website or holler at him in the chatroom, he givesyou back a portion of the spread as a rebate, with this EA running mini's, Ihave gotten back some pretty good coin out of it.. Also JW of Forexmgr , we have been working together for a bit, to allow you,if you need assistance in reading charts , figuring out consolidations,trends, and what to look for, decided to have an introductory rate to getyou started. He is on the prefferred links page.

Market Thoughts from andy on the EA

AUD/CAD

The price is oscillating on the 61.8 Fib line on the day chart.Since February 25th the pair has been on an aggressive run, long, withoutstopping for a breather. The last 6 days has seen the price hold around thisfib line. Look for further oscillations within a 200 pip range.AUD/USD: This pair continues in it upward trend heading for the 200moving average on the day chart at 0.7350. Currently the price appears to beoscillating on a strong resistance line at 0.7275 where it has tried tobreak thru once before. The pair is attempting to climb out of its low sinceits dramatic drop last July. Look for 150 to 200 pip oscillations foranother day or two as both the 200 ma and resistance line may well keep thepair from moving much further without major news coming out on the pair.

Euro/Aud

The price is also oscillating on the 61.8 Fib line on theday chart. Since March 19th the pair has been on an aggressive run shortwithout stopping for a breather either. Look for this pair to hold at thislevel for a while. On the 4 hr chart the price is currently holding on asupport line created 3 days ago. All 4 hr and day moving average indicatorsare above the current price so look for price to consolidate to give themoving averages time to catch up.


Euro/Cad

Price is sitting at the 200 ma and has dropped sharply sincethe 3rd of April. The price is consolidating at the price point, as it isan area previously of both support and resistance since February 18th, andlike many other pairs is at the 61.8% fib on the recent price activity sinceNovember 2008.


Euro/CHF

Price is holding on the 38.2% fib line and the 89 ma andlooks to continue to consolidate at this level for only a short whilelonger. The day chart is holding the price at the 89 ma and the 4 hr chartis supporting price at the 200 ma. Price has oscillated in a very tightrange so be careful and look for it to possibly move back up to the 50% fibat 1.5330


Euro/GBP

Price has been running in a short trend for almost a monthand is closing in on the 50% fib on the day chart. Price has approaching astrong support line at 0.8760. Look for it to consolidate near this pricepoint.


Eur/USD

Price is weaving between the 89 ma and the 200 ma on the 4 hr chart,and is consolidating on the 89 ma on the day chart, which is also the 23.2%fib on the day chart. We may get one more day of oscillation out of thispair before it makes a move. Look for news to make this pair move in onedirection or the other. Be careful because a break below the 23.2 fib willput it in a free fall all the way down to 1.2540. If the price moves to theupside, the 89 ma on the 4 hr might hold the pair at 1.3300.


GBP/CHF

The swissie looks to be a continuing its trend up towards the 23.2%fib, in a continuation of its aggressive manner. Price seems to beconsolidating over the last 36 hrs.


GBP/USD

The price is once again challenging the physiological 1.500 pricepoint for the 6th time since the 2008 route of the GBP. Coincidently (ornot) the 23.2% fib is also at the same price point. Until this pair decidesto settle around this price, be very cautious.


USD/CAD

Price has retraced back to the 38.2% fib line and is half waybetween the 89 ma and the 200 ma on the day chart. Price looks to beconsolidating at this support.


USD/CHF

Although there were some big moves recently, the price seems to beconsolidating as the 13 ma, 50 ma, 89 ma and 200 ma are all coming togetheron the day chart. I would expect it to consolidate for a little whilelonger, unless news creates a direction. Price is between fib lines.

Daily Market Thoughts from John Malin‏ for the EA

AUD/CAD
The price is oscillating on the 61.8 Fib line on the day chart.Since February 25th the pair has been on an aggressive run, long, withoutstopping for a breather. The last 6 days has seen the price hold on this fibline. Look for further oscillations.

AUD/USD:
This pair continues in it upward trend heading for the 200moving average on the day chart at 0.7350. Currently the price appears to beoscillating on a strong resistance line at 0.7275 where it has tried tobreak thru once before. The pair is attempting to climb out of its low sinceits dramatic drop last July. Look for oscillations as both the 200 ma andresistance line may well keep the pair from moving much further withoutmajor news coming out on the pair.

Euro/Aud

The price is also oscillating on the 61.8 Fib line on theday chart. Since March 19th the pair has been on an aggressive run shortwithout stopping for a breather either. Looks like the Aussie is coming backwith revenge. As both the USD and the CAD have also oversold the Aussie,look for this pair to hold at this level for a while. On the 4 hr chart theprice is currently holding on a support line created 3 days ago. All 4 hrand day moving average indicators are above the current price so look forprice to consolidate to give the moving averages time to catch up.

Euro/Cad
Price is sitting at the 200 ma and has dropped sharply sincethe 3rd of April. The price seems to be consolidating at the price point, asit is an area previously of both support and resistance since February 18th,and like many other pairs is at the 61.8% fib on the recent price activitysince
November 2008.


Euro/CHF

Price is holding on the 38.2% fib line and the 89 ma andlooks to continue to consolidate at this level for only a short whilelonger. The day chart is holding the price at the 89 ma and the 4 hr chartis supporting price at the 200 ma. Price has been oscillating within a verysmall range for almost 2 weeks now so look for it to possibly move back upto the 50% fib at 1.5330

Euro/GBP
Price has been running in a short trend for almost a monthand is closing in on the 50% fib on the day chart. Price is also approachinga strong support line at 0.8760. Look for it to consolidate near this pricepoint.

Eur/USD
Price is weaving between the 89 ma and the 200 ma on the 4 hr chart,and is consolidating on the 89 ma on the day chart, which is also the 23.2%fib on the day chart. Look for news to make this pair move in one directionor the other.


GBP/USD
The price is once again challenging the physiological 1.500 pricepoint for the 6th time since the 2008 route of the GBP. Coincidently (ornot) the 23.2% fib is also at the same price point. Until this pair decidesto settle around this price, be very cautious.

USD/CAD
Price has retraced back to the 38.% fib line and is half way betweenthe 89 ma and the 200 ma on the day chart. It may be wise to once again waitfor a consolidation before attempting this pair.

USD/CHF
Although there were some big moves recently, the price seems to beconsolidating as the 13 ma, 50 ma, 89 ma and 200 ma are all coming togetheron the day chart. I would expect it to consolidate for a little whilelonger, unless news creates a direction. Price is between fib lines.

Daily FAQ,
What Pairs are best to Trade The best pairs to have on the EA can change according to market conditions.The Aggressive strategy works best in a choppy (oscillating) market. Thiscan be best detected by reviewing your 4-hr charts and your 1-day charts. Ifyou see the candles moving away from a faster Moving Average lines (such asthe 8 or 12MA), then it is not Oscillating, it is trending. Most all the main pairs with exception of the JPY pairs work well,expecially using timed entry in off hours.

NEW VIDEO'S‏ for the EA

NEW VIDEO'S ON OUR NEW TRAINING PAGE.

www.eafxtrader.com/training.aspx

Daily FAQ‏ FOR THE EA

Q.
When we suspend trading what happens with the open trades?

A.

If you want to Suspend trading on a pair, the best method is to rightclick on that chart and click on Expert Advisors/Properties. A Box willPop-up. Here, you can change "Suspend Trading" from false to true. Thismethod allows the EA to continue Managing the Open trades for that pair, butwill not enter any new Positions on that pair. To resume trading on that pair, you must change "Suspend Trading" from trueto false.The EA has to run and your computer up during trades... Thomas_eaFXTrader

REPORTS FOR THE EA

Due to most of Europe having a holiday due to Easter, Monday was a quiet dayin the forex markets. This created very low volumes, which can create sharpruns in a currency pair. If you were trading today, you might haveexperienced some Entries that resulted in a Stop Loss [sl] getting hit. Asyou move forward in your trading, keep in mind that you might not want to betrading on holidays.

I'll go thru the non-Yen pairs that are highlighted in Yellow on thespreadsheet we sent out earlier today. As always, no buy, sell, or holdrecommendations.

audcad

At market close yesterday, this pair touched its recent high, andimmediately retreated over 150 pips to where it now it is resting. Itdoesn't seem to have settled, and may still show sporadic volatility. Allowthe 89 & 200 MA on the 4-hr chart to merge with the price-line beforeconsidering it in an Oscillation mode. from Monday's discussion: Retesting its recent short-term Resistance (R).The candles are far away from the 89 & 200 MA, putting it Out of Range.There may be some Consolidation in this area, but not enough evidence toshow this.

audusd

The pair did test, and retreat from, its recent high. This high could bere-tested, as the U.S. has the Core CPI m/m, the Beige Book, and theTreasury Currency economic reports that could result in USD weakness, sowatch this, and all the USD pairs closely. from Monday's discussion: Retesting its recent short-term Resistance (R).The candles are far away from the 89 & 200 MA, putting it Out of Range.

euraud

This pair is in an Oscillation mode currently. Watch it carefully, as theAUD can drop or spike with reports on commodity requirements from Developingcountries, like China. from Monday's discussion: Day chart shows this pair is still Trending. 4hrchart shows the beginning of consolidation. Give this pair until Tuesday'sU.S. Afternoon session, before considering it to be in Consolidation.

eurcad

The pair is in Oscillating mode, however the waves are over 300 pips up ordown. Early entries by the EA might Close negative, while later entries inthe set might Close positive. from Monday's discussion: Both the Day chart and the 4hr chart show thebeginning of consolidation. Give this pair until Tuesday's U.S. Afternoonsession, before considering it to be in Consolidation.

eurchf

This pair has not found it's footing - yet. It is Oscillating, but withlarge swings during the U.S. afternoon sessions. It should calm down a bitin the next few days. from Monday's discussion: Sharp move in this pair Monday morning, due to theEuropean holiday. Leave this pair alone for a day or so, until it finds it'sfooting. This has been a good pair for the EA to work, so keep it in mind asthe price Consolidates around the 89 MA.

eurusd

The U.S. has the Core CPI m/m, the Beige Book, and the Treasury Currencyeconomic reports that could result in USD weakness, so watch this, and allthe USD pairs closely. My Fibonacci lines on the 4-hr chart show largerOscillations occurring between the 50% line and the 23.6 line. Look forcontinued Oscillations, but be weary of those economic reports Wed. morning. from Monday's discussion: Sharp move in this pair Monday morning, due to theEuropean holiday. Leave this pair alone until at least the Tuesday Asianmarket session, or until it finds it's footing. This has been a good pairfor the EA to work, so keep it in mind as the price Consolidates around the89 MA.

gbpchf

Several Oscillation and Consolidation points as it moves between the 61.8and the 76.4 Fib lines; a good sign for Oscillation lovers. A bit ofcaution, as it is still stretched away from the 89 & 200 MA. from Monday's discussion: Sharp move in this pair Monday morning, due to theEuropean holiday. Leave this pair alone until at least the Tuesday Asianmarket session, or until it finds it's footing. This has been a good pairfor the EA to work, so keep it in mind as the price Consolidates around the89 MA.

gbpusd

The U.S. has the Core CPI m/m, the Beige Book, and the Treasury Currencyeconomic reports that could result in USD weakness, so watch this, and allthe USD pairs closely. Oscillations are occurring, but be careful, as theyare larger Oscillations. from Monday's discussion: A VERY sharp move in this pair Monday morning, dueto the European holiday. The pair is stretched and Out of Range. Leave thispair alone for now. This has been a good pair for the EA to work, so keep itin mind as the price Consolidates around the 89 MA.

usdcad

The U.S. has the Core CPI m/m, the Beige Book, and the Treasury Currencyeconomic reports that could result in USD weakness, so watch this, and allthe USD pairs closely. Several Oscillation and Consolidation points A goodsign for Oscillation lovers. from Monday's discussion: The CAD is a Commodity linked currency, andcommodities don't know which direction to take right now. The pair is alittle stretched out to the down side, and going in and out of range. Thishas been a good pair for the EA to work, so keep it in mind as the priceConsolidates around the 89 MA.

usdchf

This pair seems to be finding a temporary footing between 1,1325 and 1.1425.A good sign for Oscillation lovers. The U.S. has the Core CPI m/m, the BeigeBook, and the Treasury Currency economic reports that could result in USDweakness, so watch this, and all the USD pairs closely. from Monday's discussion: A VERY sharp move in this pair Monday morning, dueto the European holiday. The pair is stretched and Out of Range. Leave thispair alone for now. This has been a good pair for the EA to work, so keep itin mind as the price Consolidates around the 89 MA.

FAQ of the Day: Q. How many consecutive trades will the EA Open on one pair? A. Go to the Trade Plan you created. On the Aggressive tab, you'll see afield: Entry Levels. Default is 20. This means you will have a maximum of 20Entries in one set of trades on a pair before an Exit point is hit. A moreconservative position could possibly be to reduce that number to 10 Entries.However, that could open you up to a greater risk as trades Opened later inthe set tend to be more profitable the the initial trades Opened in a set.

resaults

This is an excample of some of the resaults that we have been getting with the eafxtrader

My results for last 3 days of this week (3/25, 3/26, 3/27) are:
The system closed 40 trades total (38 P and 2 N) with a net of 622 pips.
I ran on only 2 to 5 pairs at a time and system was closed a lot for upcoming news and most Washington noise.
This could get to be fun, if I ever figure out what I’m doing.

note the last profound statement he did this well with out knowing all the ins and outs

THAT S WHAT WE NEED TO BE ABLE TO MAKE MONEY EVAN AT THE START OF USEING THE SYSTEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ANOUTHER POINT OF VIEW


i set my demo up intentionally aggressive and overleveraged to a catatrophic meltdown of the account
instead its gone through the roof
now up 79% in my 5th day

resaults

THE NEW EAFXTRADER

Click here to learn much more about how it works and how it will help you trade with confidence
www.eafxtrader.com/vid/eafxQA.html
This video is a explanation and Question and Answer session with the programmer of the eafxtrader Andy Stapleton

Hi Folks
If trading currencies were an easy task, all traders would be wealthy. Trading takes time to master and there are absolutely no short cuts to this process – until now…
Welcome to the eaFXTrader. This heavyweight winner is an aggressive auto-trader, developed, refined, and battle tested over a 24-month period for the foreign exchange (Forex) currency spot market. No back-tests, no hypothetical. We are running both demo and funded accounts, providing current statistics on our progress at the website: http://www.eafxtrader.com/. Review our information, and sign up for a free 30-day trial.

Visit our website: http://www.eafxtrader.com/. We offer an unrestricted eaFXTrader expert advisor license to be used solely with a MT4 platform broker's demo account. This EA will run as long as your brokerage demo account exists. When you see the eaFXTrader can make you pips and money, you can arrange the $199/mo fee through PayPal and move the eaFXTrader to a live trading account.
Hurry. The Forex Market is not waiting for you.
Best regards,
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eaFXTrader, LLC.

New Format

Hello all

Just wanted to let you know that i will be changing this blog to an audio blog with some video .

This will make it a lot easier on me, mainly because it is a lot easier to talk then it is to type.

I am going to spend this weekend finding the best way to do this, then start putting the links up for you to use.

I think this will be a lot better for you, and me.

thanks
J.W.

The One Hour Bracketed back set up

This set up is derived from the one hour trade plan

And as you know all charts build the same way, with that in mind let’s look at how we can use and adjust the set up to benefit us when the 4 hour does not do what we want it to do.

Ok like the on hour trade plan you are looking for a Set up on the 4 hour and confirming with the lower charts. But, what you are looking for is for the CCI to be at the +100 line coming down from the over bought (outside the +100 line). With the 4 hour in that position the 1 hr chart should be and must be flat just above the 0 line on the CCI, and it must be coming from he over bought status. If this presents itself in this manner you have a basic set up for the bracketed back 1 hour trade.

Validating the monitor.
There are really two more things that you must do to validate this set up you must have CCI and the EMA’S in your favor when doing this trade.
1) the 30 minute CCI must be at the bottom (the CCI should be at the oversold the farther out the better)
2) The EMA’S must be going the direction that you wish to trade in. (on the 30,1 hour, and the 4 hour)
Stop loss setting
You will need to set a larger stop loss, this is required because you will most likely have to ride out some type of a retracement or pull back. So you must go to the 4 hour chart and measure from the price to the next obstruction and make sure that you will be out side of it with your stop loss. If the distance is more then 50 pips then you should set the stop loss where you are comfortable.
The key to this is trade plan is to check the distance on everything.

USE OF THE EMA’S FOR DIRECTION

I was thinking of a way to tell the direction of the pair and the best way to ultimately be correct when trading and this is what I came up with.

It’s really quit simplistic in the usage and execution. One constant, as I have stated in the other articles that I have shared with you, Is that all charts build the same. So if you have the 15 min chart starting to brake to the short or sell then the further that the EMAs spread apart (separation and angel ) then it stands to reason that the 30 1hr and 4hr will fallow right behind the 15 especially when starting in to a trend .

Then once the trend has been established, then the main consideration should be on finding the pull back and which charts 10 EMA it is pulling back to. This can be determined easily by seeing where the price is as opposed to the 10 EMA first of the 15 then the 30 and so on usually when the price candle passes the 10 EMA on the lower chart you can expect the pull back on the next higher chart to occur and once the lower chart has passed the 20 EMA then you can expect that the pull back is on the second higher chart.

EXAMPLE
When working with the one hour trade plan and you are waiting for the 4 hr to set up for the short move (waiting for the pull back)

You will find that the 4hr is trending short but it must do the pull back to get the CCI in position. You will find in the process of the 4hr doing it’s pull back that the 1 hour has crossed the 20 EMA and if you go on back that the lower charts, when it passes its 10 EMA on the 15 then you are on the way to the pull back of the 30 and it is usually confirmed by the 15 crossing it’s 20 EMA and by the time the 15 passes the 20 the 30 min has probably crossed it’s 10 EMA and so on up the chart time frames.

So if you are looking for a full pull back to get the CCI of the 4 hour in position look at the one hour chart to see if it has crossed the 20 EMA yet and when it does then more times then not you will have your one hour trade plan set up.

EUR/USD evaluation

hello

Well I have been trading the EUR/USD for a few weeks now and I have not been impressed with the smoothness of this pair. let me explain.

first thing is it is an attractive pair in the fact that for the broker I have been using the spread is only 2 pips. and that is a good thing always, because the less you give your broker the more you will put in, or keep in your pocket.

But here is the rub, and when you look at the flow, for the most part it is like most pairs and can be traded using the one hour trade plan

The problem is in the fact that when the news, during the day is happening on capitol hill, the fluctuation of the pair can be misleading and quit choppy. For instance I have been watching a four hour candle and it has had a 58 pip swing, I know that that does not sound bad ,but most of that went up and down 4 times in about 2 hours.

This presents a problem when trading, and trying to find the flow of the chart. this kind of movement on the 4 hour chart represents fast moving choppy candles on the smaller charts and if you have a tight stop loss this could very well put you behind the 8 ball, no matter what trade plan or system you are using.

I have found that the EUR/USD does this often during the day, other pairs have this situation happen as well. It is prudent to keep this in mind when analyzing your charts for set up on the one hour trade plan or any system you are using.

I welcome your comment and look forward to seeing them

Cause and affect of congress and the forex market

Here is a good one for you the stimulus package has been passed by Nancy and her cronies in the house and this goes to how out of touch that some of the house of representative are.

There are Dem's in the sennate that don't agree with the package and the pork in the current bill.

When the house passed the bill the Dow and most currencies went down, now that the senate is talking about the changes and more tax cuts the Dow and most currencies are on there way up

moral of this story is watch what the congress does to give you an idea to what the market may do.

Read the arcived post to get more forex info that you may need!!!!!

Analyzing the flow of the charts

Flow of the chart means to use the natural progression of the technical chart to anticipate the eventual out come of the trade.

How can you tell the direction is going short or long?

The first thing that you must understand is that all charts no matter what time frame you are viewing are building in the same manner with no exceptions from the 1 minute to the 1 month.

By paying attention to the indicators you are able, for a short time, relative to the chart you are analyzing, you may be able to anticipate the short term out come, this work very well when anticipate the one hour trade plan , what I mean by “short time” and “short term” is the candle that is building on the higher chart possibly the following candle.

Never any further then that.

You must have in your indicators a way to tell over all direction I use 10, 20, 50, and the 89 EMA’s, you may use the EMA’s that works best for you. You have to understand what the EMA’s are telling you .

When looking for and entry the EMA’S can help, if you are going long and you are close to a 10 EMA on the day chart you may want to wait until the price has broken the day chart 10 EMA point.

Most of the time when the price hits an EMA on a higher chart the price will take a draw back, this draw back can cause you to get stopped out, depending on your stop loss setting, to prevent this from happening to you, first don’t trade if you are close to a day 10 EMA until after you have passed it. Same with the 4 hour chart 10 EMA and the price trend line.

Let’s take the same situation and find out how we can tell if it will break on through or if the 10 EMA of the day is the turn around point.

You must remember that the higher the chart the more solid the resistance or the support is.

Note:
(For instance the 15 minute 10 EMA or trend line is much easier to break, then the 30 minute the same applies as you go up in time frames.
30 easier then the 1hr. 1 hr easier then the 4 hr, 4 hr easier then the day, day easier then the week ,week easier then the month this is particularly true when you are in a one our trade plan trade)

You will be looking at the 4 hour chart first (remember that the day is close to the 10 EMA and we are looking to go long.

Note:
If the EMA’s on the 4 hour are consolidated it makes it a little hard to find direction,

With that being said, if your EMA’s are starting to spread to the long side on the 4 hour chart, then the evidence is there for your day to continue long.

(BUT it is not guaranteed)

Now we need to validate the trade, when using any trade plan you must have a way to validate the trade the way to do this is look back at the 1 hour chart you are looking for two main indications on the 1 hour chart. The EMA’s need to be spreading apart to the long direction, the wider the better, this will give you an indication that the 4 hour and day may continue long. The other indicator you are looking for is the CCI to be at the bottom (over sold) of the scale.

Why are we looking at the CCI?

If the CCI is at the bottom of the scale then there is more of a chance for the price to go up rather then down. We are going to want to have this to be true also on the 30 minute chart.

Now that we have all that checked out and all of our charts are showing that we have more of a chance to go long then short, then we can be more comfortable about staying in a trade that is going to hit the 10 EMA of the day chart.


Note:
If the 15 minute has the EMA’s spread wide and the CCI over sold heading long this will help to confirm this move going long.

Now let’s look at how to tell that the price is going to possibly turn or draw back to the short, at the 10 EMA of the day chart,

Again you start with the 4 hour chart and find out the attitude of the EMA’s. Just for example sake lets say that we are using the one hour trade plan and the EMA’s are just starting to brake to the north and the day is right up against it’s 10 EMA. So far the 4 hr and the day are telling you that it MAY continue long.

Let’s validate the trade.

We go to the 1 hour and see that the 10 EMA is now starting to curve down and the price is candle is below the 10 EMA on the 1 hour chart this is an indication that the move to the long is possibly slowing or is drawing back
This would NOT be the time to enter a trade going long.


If you go on back to the 30 minute and see that the EMA’s are crossing over and heading short and spreading apart, Which is going the opposite direction of the 4 hr and day there is more of a chance that the 10 EMA of the day is the turn around point, and it is going to at the very least draw back the current day candle, back to a previous price. You would want to wait until it finishes that draw back before you try to go long again.

Note:
You may want to at this time start to evaluate the possibility of going the other direction (short) and start looking for an entry using the validation process making sure that it is not just a pull back to the 4 hour 10 EMA.

The 15 minute and the CCI of all the charts can help to identify the pull back on a higher chart or the return to the trend.

The CCI is important to the evaluation and you have to evaluate it on each time frame individually.

You can get an idea of the more likely direction if you are looking to go long and all the CCI’s on all lower charts are at the bottom (over sold) of the scale then you have more of a chance to go long. If the CCI’s are at the top (over bought) on all charts except the 4 hour or day then there is a real chance that the 4 hour and eventually the day will retrace or pull back.

Note:
(You can not anticipate direction by looking at the CCI only it lags too much).


Note:
This is important when you combine the EMA direction with the CCI direction when they are agreeing with each other then the stronger the move to that direction.

If the CCI is going down and the EMA’s are going up depending on the spread of the EMA’s then you may only be doing a pull back on that particular chart and not a change in direction over all.

Recap:

The technique is based upon the fact that the charts are all built in the same manner and they are all built from one formula base on tick data. To explain a little more this is how the charts are built.

Tick data is compiled to build the1 minute candle. It takes five 1 minute candles build the 5 minute candle. Three 5 minute candles build the 15 minute candle. It takes two 15’s build the 30 minute candle. Two 30’s builds the 1 hour candle. Four 1hour candles build the 4 hour candle. Six 4hour candles to build the day candle. Five 5 day candles build the week candle, 4 week candles to build the 1 mouth candle.

You may ask why did you go through all that ?

The reason is once you understand the way candles are built then it is easy to see how you can look at the lower charts and see what the upper charts may do. Also be able to see the one hour trade plan develop.

I hope that this is going to help you when you analyze the charts.

Thank you
J. W. Stapleton