Sunday, May 31, 2009
Some thoughts on the market
Last week we saw some pretty strong movements out of the pairs against thedollar, does that mean you need to suspend it? No, actually as we have always learned, after each move there is a restperiod, that is what we are looking for.. EUR -- resistance on the daily and weekly are coming up, should start toslow trading a bit this month thru the EU vacation time in July aug. GBP -- been running a week or 2 but it is still a retracement on the weekly,so expect some resistance to start showing up soon... With choppiness.. AUD -- same story different pairs, as the US economy shows signs or isproported to be hitting bottom a lot of funds sitting on the sidelines arestarting to trickle into the market, commodities and oil, driving the dollardown... Now, here is my thoughts......... We have had for a couple of quarters some "flight to safety" as the punditsand others have said we are in the next big depression, the acts of bernakeand G-man have thrown a bit of brakes on it, but certainly the "raining" ofdollars onto the market may come back to bite them in the buttocks. There CERTAINLY have been mistakes in this debacle that will start todisplay their ugliness soon, depending on how severe that is , will dependon market. Here is what I am watching...... GM - if the do file bankrupcty, that will reverberate through the market,and cause some dollar moves, as some scaring will happen, so watch forabrupt strong moves the other direction this week. As the President presents the next big spending plan, expect some fights andarguing there, G-man is flying to china to assure china we are not completeidiots and "kiss backsides" so they don't pull the plug on is.... We live in interesting times, this month is the end of the 2cnd quarter, andshould be quite interesting to see how they market sets up for summerquarter. Andy <> Stapletonwww.eaFXTrader.com your Final Solution for MT4 automated Trading
Friday, May 22, 2009
Analyzing the flow of the charts
Flow of the chart means to use the natural progression of the technical chart to anticipate the eventual out come of the trade.How can you tell the direction is going short or long?The first thing that you must understand is that all charts no matter what time frame you are viewing are building in the same manner with no exceptions from the 1 minute to the 1 month.By paying attention to the indicators you are able, for a short time, relative to the chart you are analyzing, you may be able to anticipate the short term out come, this work very well when anticipate the one hour trade plan , what I mean by “short time” and “short term” is the candle that is building on the higher chart possibly the following candle.Never any further then that.You must have in your indicators a way to tell over all direction I use 10, 20, 50, and the 89 EMA’s, you may use the EMA’s that works best for you. You have to understand what the EMA’s are telling you .When looking for and entry the EMA’S can help, if you are going long and you are close to a 10 EMA on the day chart you may want to wait until the price has broken the day chart 10 EMA point.Most of the time when the price hits an EMA on a higher chart the price will take a draw back, this draw back can cause you to get stopped out, depending on your stop loss setting, to prevent this from happening to you, first don’t trade if you are close to a day 10 EMA until after you have passed it. Same with the 4 hour chart 10 EMA and the price trend line.Let’s take the same situation and find out how we can tell if it will break on through or if the 10 EMA of the day is the turn around point.You must remember that the higher the chart the more solid the resistance or the support is.Note:(For instance the 15 minute 10 EMA or trend line is much easier to break, then the 30 minute the same applies as you go up in time frames.30 easier then the 1hr. 1 hr easier then the 4 hr, 4 hr easier then the day, day easier then the week ,week easier then the month this is particularly true when you are in a one our trade plan trade)You will be looking at the 4 hour chart first (remember that the day is close to the 10 EMA and we are looking to go long.Note:If the EMA’s on the 4 hour are consolidated it makes it a little hard to find direction,With that being said, if your EMA’s are starting to spread to the long side on the 4 hour chart, then the evidence is there for your day to continue long.(BUT it is not guaranteed)Now we need to validate the trade, when using any trade plan you must have a way to validate the trade the way to do this is look back at the 1 hour chart you are looking for two main indications on the 1 hour chart. The EMA’s need to be spreading apart to the long direction, the wider the better, this will give you an indication that the 4 hour and day may continue long. The other indicator you are looking for is the CCI to be at the bottom (over sold) of the scale.Why are we looking at the CCI?If the CCI is at the bottom of the scale then there is more of a chance for the price to go up rather then down. We are going to want to have this to be true also on the 30 minute chart.Now that we have all that checked out and all of our charts are showing that we have more of a chance to go long then short, then we can be more comfortable about staying in a trade that is going to hit the 10 EMA of the day chart.Note:If the 15 minute has the EMA’s spread wide and the CCI over sold heading long this will help to confirm this move going long.Now let’s look at how to tell that the price is going to possibly turn or draw back to the short, at the 10 EMA of the day chart,Again you start with the 4 hour chart and find out the attitude of the EMA’s. Just for example sake lets say that we are using the one hour trade plan and the EMA’s are just starting to brake to the north and the day is right up against it’s 10 EMA. So far the 4 hr and the day are telling you that it MAY continue long.Let’s validate the trade.We go to the 1 hour and see that the 10 EMA is now starting to curve down and the price is candle is below the 10 EMA on the 1 hour chart this is an indication that the move to the long is possibly slowing or is drawing backThis would NOT be the time to enter a trade going long.If you go on back to the 30 minute and see that the EMA’s are crossing over and heading short and spreading apart, Which is going the opposite direction of the 4 hr and day there is more of a chance that the 10 EMA of the day is the turn around point, and it is going to at the very least draw back the current day candle, back to a previous price. You would want to wait until it finishes that draw back before you try to go long again.Note:You may want to at this time start to evaluate the possibility of going the other direction (short) and start looking for an entry using the validation process making sure that it is not just a pull back to the 4 hour 10 EMA.The 15 minute and the CCI of all the charts can help to identify the pull back on a higher chart or the return to the trend.The CCI is important to the evaluation and you have to evaluate it on each time frame individually.You can get an idea of the more likely direction if you are looking to go long and all the CCI’s on all lower charts are at the bottom (over sold) of the scale then you have more of a chance to go long. If the CCI’s are at the top (over bought) on all charts except the 4 hour or day then there is a real chance that the 4 hour and eventually the day will retrace or pull back.Note:(You can not anticipate direction by looking at the CCI only it lags too much).Note:This is important when you combine the EMA direction with the CCI direction when they are agreeing with each other then the stronger the move to that direction.If the CCI is going down and the EMA’s are going up depending on the spread of the EMA’s then you may only be doing a pull back on that particular chart and not a change in direction over all.Recap:The technique is based upon the fact that the charts are all built in the same manner and they are all built from one formula base on tick data. To explain a little more this is how the charts are built.Tick data is compiled to build the1 minute candle. It takes five 1 minute candles build the 5 minute candle. Three 5 minute candles build the 15 minute candle. It takes two 15’s build the 30 minute candle. Two 30’s builds the 1 hour candle. Four 1hour candles build the 4 hour candle. Six 4hour candles to build the day candle. Five 5 day candles build the week candle, 4 week candles to build the 1 mouth candle.You may ask why did you go through all that ?The reason is once you understand the way candles are built then it is easy to see how you can look at the lower charts and see what the upper charts may do. Also be able to see the one hour trade plan develop.I hope that this is going to help you when you analyze the charts.Thank youJ. W. Stapleton
Thursday, May 21, 2009
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No longer will you have to look up and read endless news stories and reports to try to figure out the next move of the pairs
No longer spend your valuable time searching for highs and lows of the oscillation both short term and longer term.
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LOOK AT THE LIST OF UPDATED DAILY REPORTS.
News for current day and the next day
highs and lows of the oscillations
target points
pivot point settings
possible overall direction
analysis of the charts for 13 pairs
current dow, oil and gold prices
red flag warnings time and date
trade range
Possible Alternative trade plan set up
Just one of these reports will help you to gain the information
Necessary for trading
And you will receive all the reports every day
Sunday thru Thursday!!!!!
Here are what some of our current members have to say
I had spent thousands of dollars to learn Forex trading through another company, including investments in their software and training programs. I was sadly disappointed in their non-comprehensive and non-personalized approach which did not take into consideration my long-term goals nor my initial inexperience in this market. I’ve been a painting contractor for most of my adult life, so even spending a steady amount of time at my computer was, by itself, a lifestyle change. Two years later, with too much money wasted and no significant improvement in my knowledge base, I become acquainted with Forex Managers, and since have become an eager student of JW and Andy Stapleton. Their desire that I be taught in a way that would be efficient for me was inspiring—not only is their proprietary software effective, rational and easy to use, the combination of their confidence in my ability to learn and their willingness to work with me at a level I can comprehend have made all the difference. The level of integrity they express in how they treat their students, and their encouragement along the way, have made very real to me a future in which I will be able to provide for my family and actually enjoy what I do day to day. I’m a terrific example that, whether a beginner or expert, Forex Managers will contribute to your ultimate success as well.
David Simmons
To: JW Stapleton of Forexmgr, Anyone that is looking for a method/information source that works within the Forex market.
The program seems to work very well in “all market conditions” (choppy to long term trends). The methods that forexmgr uses is very flexible.
I have been in the markets (Commodities, Options and Forex) for about 6 years and I can honestly say that until I found Forexmgr I was just floundering and not very consistence in my successful trades. I used plans/systems and some of them cost a lot of money and after some time I became very discouraged and lost a lot more of my money. Each time I used a new system the results were always the same, however, in the long term only picking up a few new good points (so not all was a total loss). Lighter pockets and systems that in effect did not adapt to all markets conditions that seem to change with the weather.
With the method that “JW” teaches, I and many others in the group, will attest to the fact that you have the tools to deal with all types of market conditions. He speaks in a way that all can relate to and learn how to deal with the changing markets. JW is very friendly and has the patience of jobe and loves helping people any time of the day and night. I would recommend watching and listening to his classes. If you are new and unsure of the forex market or making bad trades with big pullbacks or losses and you want to learn how to possibly prevent this from happening, then this is the place for you.
The other thing about this group is that everyone helps everyone.
Hope to see you at Forexmgr.com
Happy successful trades to you.
Ken Calkins
I'm not new to trading, I traded the commodities market during the late 70's and early 80's. I was one of the unlucky one's to be on the opposite side of the Hunt brothers when they were trying to corner the silver market. I lost over five thousand. Made it back in wheat. A couple of years ago I got back into trading in the S&P500. I used a 5min chart for entering and exiting trades, very fast pace to say the least. Terrible system in choppy markets.
The reason for this bit of history is that I have some experience trading and know just about every mistake you can make because I made most of them. Over trading, moving stops, going on vacation with open trades, just to name a few. Most of my trading mistakes were do to emotion. The psychological factor that's involved in trading these markets is enormous. If you don't have a good system, if you have trouble controlling your emotions, and you don't have excellent ongoing support, don't trade. Eventually you will lose.
A company called FOREXMGR founded by Andy and JW Stapleton have put it all together. Their Desktop system works. It monitors my trades and gets me in and out of the trade based on parameters I give it, keeping a lot of the emotion out of trading. Training and support are excellent. Chat room training 3 mornings a week and chat room market reviews with training 4 nights a week.
They also provide seminar training. I attended a seminar in Las Vegas and was more than satisfied with what was provided. Live trading, different levels of training, and plenty of one on one This isn't a get rich quick scheme. It takes work to make money in any market. If you take part in the chat room support, learn how to use your charts to anticipate direction, understand support and resistance etc., and put in the time and effort that you need, then you will be on the right track with FOREXMGR.
Best Regards,
Bill Dick
Morning JW
I just wanted to drop you a note and say thanks for all the help from forexmgr.com. I’ve been with you now for about 2 years and I have learned a lot. I am getting much better at reading the charts and setting up to monitor trades and make pips. I have made far more pips since working with you folks than I ever did with the “easy” group. When I have a question I know that I can give a call and get the question answered.
Again, thanks for all your efforts and keep up the good work, the on going education is important, and even though we may not say so very often, it is much appreciated.
Still learning
Bob Lannon
My decision to subscribe to FOREXMGR has been one of the best business decisions I have made. Their constant training and repetition have been a valuable source of learning. FOREXMGR have classes and seminars for all traders, from the novas to the expert trader.
Michael Crist
SIGN UP NOW AND START
MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN YOUR TRADING
All this information daily, sent to your e-mail
For the low introductory subscription
Of only
25.95usd
Click the button to get your information
And SAVE TIME
CLICK HERE
Sign up now for your nightly forecast!!!!!!!
When using the EAFXTrader this report could help you to analyze the charts
We have developed an exciting and easy way to get the information you need to prepare for the next day of trading.
No longer will you have to look up and read endless news stories and reports to try to figure out the next move of the pairs
No longer spend your valuable time searching for highs and lows of the oscillation both short term and longer term.
Listen to a 30 to 45 minute report every day and get the information you need !!!!!!
THIS USEFUL REPORT IS DELIVERED TO YOUR E-MAIL
EVERY DAY
Delivered to you in a easy to use video and written format
ALL FOR AN INTRODUCTORY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION
OF JUST
25.95USD
click here
SIGN UP NOW AND START
MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN YOUR TRADING
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ALL THIS VALUBLE INFORMATION
LOOK AT THE LIST OF UPDATED DAILY REPORTS.
News for current day and the next day
highs and lows of the oscillations
target points
pivot point settings
possible overall direction
analysis of the charts for 13 pairs
current dow, oil and gold prices
red flag warnings time and date
trade range
Possible Alternative trade plan set up
Just one of these reports will help you to gain the information
Necessary for trading
And you will receive all the reports every day
Sunday thru Thursday!!!!!
Here are what some of our current members have to say
I had spent thousands of dollars to learn Forex trading through another company, including investments in their software and training programs. I was sadly disappointed in their non-comprehensive and non-personalized approach which did not take into consideration my long-term goals nor my initial inexperience in this market. I’ve been a painting contractor for most of my adult life, so even spending a steady amount of time at my computer was, by itself, a lifestyle change. Two years later, with too much money wasted and no significant improvement in my knowledge base, I become acquainted with Forex Managers, and since have become an eager student of JW and Andy Stapleton. Their desire that I be taught in a way that would be efficient for me was inspiring—not only is their proprietary software effective, rational and easy to use, the combination of their confidence in my ability to learn and their willingness to work with me at a level I can comprehend have made all the difference. The level of integrity they express in how they treat their students, and their encouragement along the way, have made very real to me a future in which I will be able to provide for my family and actually enjoy what I do day to day. I’m a terrific example that, whether a beginner or expert, Forex Managers will contribute to your ultimate success as well.
David Simmons
To: JW Stapleton of Forexmgr, Anyone that is looking for a method/information source that works within the Forex market.
The program seems to work very well in “all market conditions” (choppy to long term trends). The methods that forexmgr uses is very flexible.
I have been in the markets (Commodities, Options and Forex) for about 6 years and I can honestly say that until I found Forexmgr I was just floundering and not very consistence in my successful trades. I used plans/systems and some of them cost a lot of money and after some time I became very discouraged and lost a lot more of my money. Each time I used a new system the results were always the same, however, in the long term only picking up a few new good points (so not all was a total loss). Lighter pockets and systems that in effect did not adapt to all markets conditions that seem to change with the weather.
With the method that “JW” teaches, I and many others in the group, will attest to the fact that you have the tools to deal with all types of market conditions. He speaks in a way that all can relate to and learn how to deal with the changing markets. JW is very friendly and has the patience of jobe and loves helping people any time of the day and night. I would recommend watching and listening to his classes. If you are new and unsure of the forex market or making bad trades with big pullbacks or losses and you want to learn how to possibly prevent this from happening, then this is the place for you.
The other thing about this group is that everyone helps everyone.
Hope to see you at Forexmgr.com
Happy successful trades to you.
Ken Calkins
I'm not new to trading, I traded the commodities market during the late 70's and early 80's. I was one of the unlucky one's to be on the opposite side of the Hunt brothers when they were trying to corner the silver market. I lost over five thousand. Made it back in wheat. A couple of years ago I got back into trading in the S&P500. I used a 5min chart for entering and exiting trades, very fast pace to say the least. Terrible system in choppy markets.
The reason for this bit of history is that I have some experience trading and know just about every mistake you can make because I made most of them. Over trading, moving stops, going on vacation with open trades, just to name a few. Most of my trading mistakes were do to emotion. The psychological factor that's involved in trading these markets is enormous. If you don't have a good system, if you have trouble controlling your emotions, and you don't have excellent ongoing support, don't trade. Eventually you will lose.
A company called FOREXMGR founded by Andy and JW Stapleton have put it all together. Their Desktop system works. It monitors my trades and gets me in and out of the trade based on parameters I give it, keeping a lot of the emotion out of trading. Training and support are excellent. Chat room training 3 mornings a week and chat room market reviews with training 4 nights a week.
They also provide seminar training. I attended a seminar in Las Vegas and was more than satisfied with what was provided. Live trading, different levels of training, and plenty of one on one This isn't a get rich quick scheme. It takes work to make money in any market. If you take part in the chat room support, learn how to use your charts to anticipate direction, understand support and resistance etc., and put in the time and effort that you need, then you will be on the right track with FOREXMGR.
Best Regards,
Bill Dick
Morning JW
I just wanted to drop you a note and say thanks for all the help from forexmgr.com. I’ve been with you now for about 2 years and I have learned a lot. I am getting much better at reading the charts and setting up to monitor trades and make pips. I have made far more pips since working with you folks than I ever did with the “easy” group. When I have a question I know that I can give a call and get the question answered.
Again, thanks for all your efforts and keep up the good work, the on going education is important, and even though we may not say so very often, it is much appreciated.
Still learning
Bob Lannon
My decision to subscribe to FOREXMGR has been one of the best business decisions I have made. Their constant training and repetition have been a valuable source of learning. FOREXMGR have classes and seminars for all traders, from the novas to the expert trader.
Michael Crist
SIGN UP NOW AND START
MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN YOUR TRADING
All this information daily, sent to your e-mail
For the low introductory subscription
Of only
25.95usd
Click the button to get your information
And SAVE TIME
CLICK HERE
Friday, May 15, 2009
Forex Thoughts and the near future
I am working dilligently on getting in the last piece the SL Settings, Ihave setup several demo's and I can tell you the SL does work now, all Ineed to do is get it on the website and defaults setup for usage... Thisweek/month on the 5k account, didn't grow as much as the first week, butyesterday was quite helpful. We are now at a full 50% increase in the 5kaccount using 1mini.
I am contacting today MBT, to see if they are ready for new accounts forMT4, as soon as they are, I will be setting up the 5k, account there and youcan watch it. This will be a live account and published on the web.
Now, markets....
Interesting market news with CPI data and TIC data out today. In some ways,todays news is as important as NFP, so lets pay attention to the forecastedvs results. See if they are getting closer.
As far as suspension/non-suspension, if I get into trades in 1st hr, willlet those work out, if not, I will shut down. Till Sunday...
Overall the market has had some small / medium trends, CAD is looking toretrace, in my opinion we had a correction in the market that may wellresume movements, Sunday I plan on looking at weekly, daily and setting somelines, or putting the Dmark on to help with that...
Biggest runners have been the cad, eur, EUR took a 400 pip run, on the 4hr,Breaking the 200 on the daily, Looking at the weekly though shows aconsolidation, so I expect to see (barring any real news) the EUR droppingback down to the 200 on the daily and confirming the consolidation thru endof may and june.
CAD has had a bigger oscillation, you can expect that with this pair as the$ when moving will affect oil and move the CAD also. Still you can see somesimilarities between the 2. Daily oscillation around 200MA is apparent andthe weekly oscillation are getting smaller as well.
AUD/USD - Breaking thru the 200 will quite possibly fall back to the 200,this is a weekly retracement and looking to consolidate along the weekly aswell.
I am still seeing the beginning's of the summer consolidation, this is aGREAT thing as we will make the most during this timeframe with the leastrisk... So with that I am getting accounts ready, new acocunts inplace ifneeded and I suggest those that have been testing and getting a feel forthis to do the same...
Our demo accounts, the 1k account, has gained 15.00, at 0.01 lots, I amgoing to bump that up to 0.05 lots Sunday and let it run, the restrictionsof time, and adding in the SL certaily has protected the profits on the runsfrom the cad and Eur so I think it can handle the larger lotsize... We shallsee, this account is research to find how large of a lotsize we can use onthe big 8 with a 1k account.
The 5k, is doing fine, at 50% increase, I would safely say if you can open a5k account, you should be able to run at least 1/2 mini to start and 1 minionce you have let it run a bit.
Overall I am pleased with the EA, and PLEASED with the results, at thistime, so far the only account I have manually worked with a bit is the liveaccount, the others have been running without interruption .
NEXT WEEK --- memorial weekend, WED night is it for me, I am on vacation onthe "rolling thunder" ride to the Vietnam Veterans Memorial wall thru theweekend and then the wife and I will be riding the "blue ridge Parkway" onthe way home. Back online the following Wed. I will leave the demo's running,but my live will be shut down.
To all our veterans(yes I am one also) Thank you , thank you , thank you.Without the freedoms you fought for, and the friends that died for it, wewouldn't have this opportunity today, and I wouldn't be here. I cannot thank you enough.
Andy <> Stapleton
www.eaFXTrader.com
I am contacting today MBT, to see if they are ready for new accounts forMT4, as soon as they are, I will be setting up the 5k, account there and youcan watch it. This will be a live account and published on the web.
Now, markets....
Interesting market news with CPI data and TIC data out today. In some ways,todays news is as important as NFP, so lets pay attention to the forecastedvs results. See if they are getting closer.
As far as suspension/non-suspension, if I get into trades in 1st hr, willlet those work out, if not, I will shut down. Till Sunday...
Overall the market has had some small / medium trends, CAD is looking toretrace, in my opinion we had a correction in the market that may wellresume movements, Sunday I plan on looking at weekly, daily and setting somelines, or putting the Dmark on to help with that...
Biggest runners have been the cad, eur, EUR took a 400 pip run, on the 4hr,Breaking the 200 on the daily, Looking at the weekly though shows aconsolidation, so I expect to see (barring any real news) the EUR droppingback down to the 200 on the daily and confirming the consolidation thru endof may and june.
CAD has had a bigger oscillation, you can expect that with this pair as the$ when moving will affect oil and move the CAD also. Still you can see somesimilarities between the 2. Daily oscillation around 200MA is apparent andthe weekly oscillation are getting smaller as well.
AUD/USD - Breaking thru the 200 will quite possibly fall back to the 200,this is a weekly retracement and looking to consolidate along the weekly aswell.
I am still seeing the beginning's of the summer consolidation, this is aGREAT thing as we will make the most during this timeframe with the leastrisk... So with that I am getting accounts ready, new acocunts inplace ifneeded and I suggest those that have been testing and getting a feel forthis to do the same...
Our demo accounts, the 1k account, has gained 15.00, at 0.01 lots, I amgoing to bump that up to 0.05 lots Sunday and let it run, the restrictionsof time, and adding in the SL certaily has protected the profits on the runsfrom the cad and Eur so I think it can handle the larger lotsize... We shallsee, this account is research to find how large of a lotsize we can use onthe big 8 with a 1k account.
The 5k, is doing fine, at 50% increase, I would safely say if you can open a5k account, you should be able to run at least 1/2 mini to start and 1 minionce you have let it run a bit.
Overall I am pleased with the EA, and PLEASED with the results, at thistime, so far the only account I have manually worked with a bit is the liveaccount, the others have been running without interruption .
NEXT WEEK --- memorial weekend, WED night is it for me, I am on vacation onthe "rolling thunder" ride to the Vietnam Veterans Memorial wall thru theweekend and then the wife and I will be riding the "blue ridge Parkway" onthe way home. Back online the following Wed. I will leave the demo's running,but my live will be shut down.
To all our veterans(yes I am one also) Thank you , thank you , thank you.Without the freedoms you fought for, and the friends that died for it, wewouldn't have this opportunity today, and I wouldn't be here. I cannot thank you enough.
Andy <
www.eaFXTrader.com
Thursday, May 7, 2009
This is a simple report.from John on the EA
We are not trading at the moment. “They” control the horizontal AND the vertical.
The market continued to short the USD overnight, with a big push on the AUD, the GBP, the EUR, and the CAD.
The GBPCHF and the EURCHF has been consolidating during this time.
The USDCHF is currently consolidating after its large move. After such large and aggressive moves on the other USD pairs, it is not wise to trade them because we don’t know yet if they are going to consolidate at their new price points or ‘snap back” from being oversold.
Today is the end of the month and tomorrow the beginning of May. We continue to see the last week of a month and the first week of the month as being the most volatile, and therefore the most dangerous for the ea.
So…we are not trading. Tomorrow is Friday, end of week, first day of a new month, and generally we don’t trade the short Friday afternoon market.
So…we are not trading.
The GBP came out with some healthy news this morning, beating expectations, which gave the European market a burst of energy to further sell the USD, but that burst seems to have been short lived and prices appear to be retracing. All–in-all, during the week, many of the consumer confidence reports were much better than expected, making those more risk tolerant decide to sell their US dollars and invest them in the AUD and CAD (as well as others) but particularly the AUD and CAD as they are commodity countries and have a lot to benefit from consumer confidences.
Oh, and did I mention, we are not trading.
Let the market settle down and find it feet.
Let it begin to consolidate and then we will be back at the trading desk, ready to harvest pips.
John_eaFXTrading
The market continued to short the USD overnight, with a big push on the AUD, the GBP, the EUR, and the CAD.
The GBPCHF and the EURCHF has been consolidating during this time.
The USDCHF is currently consolidating after its large move. After such large and aggressive moves on the other USD pairs, it is not wise to trade them because we don’t know yet if they are going to consolidate at their new price points or ‘snap back” from being oversold.
Today is the end of the month and tomorrow the beginning of May. We continue to see the last week of a month and the first week of the month as being the most volatile, and therefore the most dangerous for the ea.
So…we are not trading. Tomorrow is Friday, end of week, first day of a new month, and generally we don’t trade the short Friday afternoon market.
So…we are not trading.
The GBP came out with some healthy news this morning, beating expectations, which gave the European market a burst of energy to further sell the USD, but that burst seems to have been short lived and prices appear to be retracing. All–in-all, during the week, many of the consumer confidence reports were much better than expected, making those more risk tolerant decide to sell their US dollars and invest them in the AUD and CAD (as well as others) but particularly the AUD and CAD as they are commodity countries and have a lot to benefit from consumer confidences.
Oh, and did I mention, we are not trading.
Let the market settle down and find it feet.
Let it begin to consolidate and then we will be back at the trading desk, ready to harvest pips.
John_eaFXTrading
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
thoughts from Andy
Trading - Some Euro concern rising?We got a nasty European Commission downgrade of growth per key news above; plus this morning from Wolfgang Münchau, writing in the Financial Times:
"Governments are not coming clean on the scale of the crisis. Süddeutsche Zeitung, the German newspaper, recently revealed an internal memo from Bafin, the country's banking regulator, showing the estimated scale of write-offs would be more than €800bn ($1,061bn, £712bn), about a third of Germany's annual gross domestic product. By comparison, the entire capital and reserves of its monetary and financial institutions were only €441.5bn in February. If the leaked number is true, it would mean the German financial system is broke.[9:09:15 AM] Andy_eaFXTrader says: watch for dollar strength
"Governments are not coming clean on the scale of the crisis. Süddeutsche Zeitung, the German newspaper, recently revealed an internal memo from Bafin, the country's banking regulator, showing the estimated scale of write-offs would be more than €800bn ($1,061bn, £712bn), about a third of Germany's annual gross domestic product. By comparison, the entire capital and reserves of its monetary and financial institutions were only €441.5bn in February. If the leaked number is true, it would mean the German financial system is broke.[9:09:15 AM] Andy_eaFXTrader says: watch for dollar strength
THOUGHTS FROM JOHN ON THE EA
Fundamentals: There is a lot of news coming out for the rest of the week including GBP Official Bank Rate, Euro Minimum Bid Rate, and comments following, unemployment and employment for many countries, and housing starts, so be aware that the market may be very choppy. So keep your eye on the news closely before just letting the ea go for a run. (Open Forex Factory and scan through all the news items.)
AUD/USD: This pair seems to have finally rested at after aggressively running to the 38.2 fib line on the larger time frames. Unless major news pushes this pair further, I would look for the aud/usd to continue to consolidate between .7250 and .7475 (38.2 fib).
Euro/AUD The price has been trending as the Aussie has been taking back some of it losses. The price is headed towards the 61.8 Fib line on the larger time frame charts, but has been consolidating for the past day and a half. As major news is coming out, I would be very cautious on this one. The recent news on the Euro has been more negative than positive, and for the Aussie, more paotivie than negative. If this trend continues, then we would see the price moving to 1.7650 area of the 61.8 fib.
Euro/CHF Price is holding on the 38.2% fib line. Price has oscillating along this line for 2 weeks now. This pair has a tendency to run in a consolidated mode for a while and then go into a 400+ pip tend to correct itself. The 13, 50, and 89 ma’s are consolidating very tightly on the 4 hr chart which may mean a move is afoot soon… the ma’s don’t like to be squeezed together. I think this pair will require some strong news for or against one of the currencies to make it move.
EUR/USD Price seems to have held at the 23.6% fib on the larger time frame charts. The pair seems oversold on the 4 hr and the recent 4hr price has been using the 23.6 fib as support. Look for news to push this below the 1.3200 price point.
GBP/CHF The pair has been slowing creeping back to the 23.6 fib line on the larger time frame. And in doing so has been a steady oscillating pair, with minor corrections every every 2 to 3 days. I would look to see the price consolidate on the current move of today before trading.
GBP/USD The price currently consolidates on the 1.500 price point, which it has tried to break through 6 times before since last November. Watch the news reports this week and there will probably be a lot of volatility. This you may want to not trade until all the relevant news is out.
USD/CAD Price is still in a downward channel after 9 weeks. The past 2 days has seen the price hold at or near the 200 ma on the day chart. Upcoming news will be important to see if the 200 ma holds. Tread carefully.
USD/CHF Price is holding above the 38.2% on the fib lines, which is at 1.1300 on the larger time frame charts. Wait and see what the news brings on this pair as it likes to move quickly on short term trends, which is not good for our trading.
Today’s Q & A:
Q. What money management is built into the system?
A. Proper Money Management is a human decision, a decision make by the individual trader. It is not determined by an EA.
One of the most important aspects of Money Management is Lot size. You, the individual trader, determine this. Realize that due to the very high number of trades the eaFXTrader places, the Lot size per Entry is of critical importance.
Some users of the eaFXTrader use 0.1 Lot (this = 1 mini-Lot) per $20,000 in account size. Please do not read this as professional financial advice, but rather a rough estimate of Lot size per account size that some folks consider to be a smart way to trade.
John_eafxtrader
AUD/USD: This pair seems to have finally rested at after aggressively running to the 38.2 fib line on the larger time frames. Unless major news pushes this pair further, I would look for the aud/usd to continue to consolidate between .7250 and .7475 (38.2 fib).
Euro/AUD The price has been trending as the Aussie has been taking back some of it losses. The price is headed towards the 61.8 Fib line on the larger time frame charts, but has been consolidating for the past day and a half. As major news is coming out, I would be very cautious on this one. The recent news on the Euro has been more negative than positive, and for the Aussie, more paotivie than negative. If this trend continues, then we would see the price moving to 1.7650 area of the 61.8 fib.
Euro/CHF Price is holding on the 38.2% fib line. Price has oscillating along this line for 2 weeks now. This pair has a tendency to run in a consolidated mode for a while and then go into a 400+ pip tend to correct itself. The 13, 50, and 89 ma’s are consolidating very tightly on the 4 hr chart which may mean a move is afoot soon… the ma’s don’t like to be squeezed together. I think this pair will require some strong news for or against one of the currencies to make it move.
EUR/USD Price seems to have held at the 23.6% fib on the larger time frame charts. The pair seems oversold on the 4 hr and the recent 4hr price has been using the 23.6 fib as support. Look for news to push this below the 1.3200 price point.
GBP/CHF The pair has been slowing creeping back to the 23.6 fib line on the larger time frame. And in doing so has been a steady oscillating pair, with minor corrections every every 2 to 3 days. I would look to see the price consolidate on the current move of today before trading.
GBP/USD The price currently consolidates on the 1.500 price point, which it has tried to break through 6 times before since last November. Watch the news reports this week and there will probably be a lot of volatility. This you may want to not trade until all the relevant news is out.
USD/CAD Price is still in a downward channel after 9 weeks. The past 2 days has seen the price hold at or near the 200 ma on the day chart. Upcoming news will be important to see if the 200 ma holds. Tread carefully.
USD/CHF Price is holding above the 38.2% on the fib lines, which is at 1.1300 on the larger time frame charts. Wait and see what the news brings on this pair as it likes to move quickly on short term trends, which is not good for our trading.
Today’s Q & A:
Q. What money management is built into the system?
A. Proper Money Management is a human decision, a decision make by the individual trader. It is not determined by an EA.
One of the most important aspects of Money Management is Lot size. You, the individual trader, determine this. Realize that due to the very high number of trades the eaFXTrader places, the Lot size per Entry is of critical importance.
Some users of the eaFXTrader use 0.1 Lot (this = 1 mini-Lot) per $20,000 in account size. Please do not read this as professional financial advice, but rather a rough estimate of Lot size per account size that some folks consider to be a smart way to trade.
John_eafxtrader
Tuesday,May 05,2009 Charts and FAQ of the day
Tuesday, May 05, 2009 Charts and FAQ of the Day:
Good day... Hola! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, today is Cinco De Mayo... It's a fun day so go have some fun!
euro, traded all the way to 1.34 and change, saw profit taking, which caused it to drop back down, only to end the day moving past 1.34 again... Overnight, the euro hit 1.3438, but once again, profits and the fact that stock futures are showing weakness have brought the Big Dog back under 1.34...
The Aussie dollar (A$) also saw a nice bid all day long yesterday, and moved past 74-cents, and remained there overnight! The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged last night, and delivered a fairly balanced statement afterward...
The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet this week, and some of thoughts in the markets here, is that the ECB will move rates lower. Those thoughts are also responsible for the drag on the euro to bring it below 1.34 this morning...
The data cupboard is pretty empty today, after yesterday's second tier reports of Pending Home Sales, and Construction Spending printed, and left us guessing what really is happening in the economy... Today, though, we'll get a clear, concise, view of the economy from our Fed Chairman, Big Ben Bernanke! OK... We can wish can't we?
AUD/CAD – A month of consolidation on the Day chart, along with a 4-hr Pendant formation. Looks like it is fixing to breakout, watch for a move in the next couple of days.
Aud/USD - Breakout on the Day and 4-hr charts. No sign of consolidation yet.
EUR/CAD – (ditto from yesterday)
was out of range last few days, with a 4hr trend occurring. I expect some oscillation, larger ones so I am still watching it vs trading it. Best case in my book is a Conservative set, Only trading 1 set of trades on it for the time being.
EUR/USD -- The 200 on the 4hr has been broken thru to the up side. Watch for news items as that can change the pattern of Upward movement. With the European meetings to discuss Rate changes coming later this week, look for decent for consolidation over next couple of days..
GBP/USD – Strong upward moves on the 4hr And Day charts. The 4hr chart has price stretching away from the 200 MA. Out of Range for now, so look for a possible pullback.
USD/CAD -- after an extended move over last few days, I look for it to remain Out of Range generally, or to consolidate briefly before resuming a run down.
USD/CHF The 200 on the 4hr has been broken thru to the down side. Large Oscillations taking place on the 4-hr, but Day has general consolidations.
GBP/CHF -- currently crossing in and out of range, but looking to consolidate. I am looking to put this on today, will review again at noon for any changes and decide then.
EUR/JPY – 1 hr and 4 hr Oscillations with sharp moves in and out of Range. Looking to consolidate.
FAQ of the Day:
Tip 7.
A gentleman had recently lost his job and asked me if he should open a Forex account using money from his credit card. My very short answer to him was “hell no”.
Here’s the longer version of that answer:
Trading in the ForEx Market is Speculative and involves a substantial Risk of Loss. This type of trading should be undertaken with funds that are allocated to a High Risk/High Return investment vehicle, and should not be considered as part of a traditional investment portfolio allocation.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
If you are considering using funds that you cannot afford to loose, we strongly recommend a savings account that is FDIC insured or U.S government backed securities.
Good day... Hola! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, today is Cinco De Mayo... It's a fun day so go have some fun!
euro, traded all the way to 1.34 and change, saw profit taking, which caused it to drop back down, only to end the day moving past 1.34 again... Overnight, the euro hit 1.3438, but once again, profits and the fact that stock futures are showing weakness have brought the Big Dog back under 1.34...
The Aussie dollar (A$) also saw a nice bid all day long yesterday, and moved past 74-cents, and remained there overnight! The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged last night, and delivered a fairly balanced statement afterward...
The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet this week, and some of thoughts in the markets here, is that the ECB will move rates lower. Those thoughts are also responsible for the drag on the euro to bring it below 1.34 this morning...
The data cupboard is pretty empty today, after yesterday's second tier reports of Pending Home Sales, and Construction Spending printed, and left us guessing what really is happening in the economy... Today, though, we'll get a clear, concise, view of the economy from our Fed Chairman, Big Ben Bernanke! OK... We can wish can't we?
AUD/CAD – A month of consolidation on the Day chart, along with a 4-hr Pendant formation. Looks like it is fixing to breakout, watch for a move in the next couple of days.
Aud/USD - Breakout on the Day and 4-hr charts. No sign of consolidation yet.
EUR/CAD – (ditto from yesterday)
was out of range last few days, with a 4hr trend occurring. I expect some oscillation, larger ones so I am still watching it vs trading it. Best case in my book is a Conservative set, Only trading 1 set of trades on it for the time being.
EUR/USD -- The 200 on the 4hr has been broken thru to the up side. Watch for news items as that can change the pattern of Upward movement. With the European meetings to discuss Rate changes coming later this week, look for decent for consolidation over next couple of days..
GBP/USD – Strong upward moves on the 4hr And Day charts. The 4hr chart has price stretching away from the 200 MA. Out of Range for now, so look for a possible pullback.
USD/CAD -- after an extended move over last few days, I look for it to remain Out of Range generally, or to consolidate briefly before resuming a run down.
USD/CHF The 200 on the 4hr has been broken thru to the down side. Large Oscillations taking place on the 4-hr, but Day has general consolidations.
GBP/CHF -- currently crossing in and out of range, but looking to consolidate. I am looking to put this on today, will review again at noon for any changes and decide then.
EUR/JPY – 1 hr and 4 hr Oscillations with sharp moves in and out of Range. Looking to consolidate.
FAQ of the Day:
Tip 7.
A gentleman had recently lost his job and asked me if he should open a Forex account using money from his credit card. My very short answer to him was “hell no”.
Here’s the longer version of that answer:
Trading in the ForEx Market is Speculative and involves a substantial Risk of Loss. This type of trading should be undertaken with funds that are allocated to a High Risk/High Return investment vehicle, and should not be considered as part of a traditional investment portfolio allocation.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
If you are considering using funds that you cannot afford to loose, we strongly recommend a savings account that is FDIC insured or U.S government backed securities.
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